February 2026 has kicked off with unusually high temperatures across much of India, especially in the northern regions.
Days feel like early summer, especially in northern cities like Delhi, where temperatures touched 30°C, forcing people to step out in lighter clothes instead of woollen as temperatures continue to climb well above normal.
On Tuesday, February 17, the temperature remained as high as 27°C in the capital, signalling that the heat is here to stay.
This warm start raises a big question. Is this just a short warm spell, or a warning that 2026 could turn out hotter than 2025?
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) confirmed that 2025 was the eighth warmest since records began in 1901.
Ten of the 15 warmest years have occurred in the last 15 years, showing a clear warming trend driven by climate change.
Now, in just the first half of February 2026, many places are seeing temperatures 3°C to 5°C above normal. This mirrors patterns from previous warm years and feels similar to how 2025 started unusually hot in parts of the season.
WHY IS FEBRUARY 2026 SO HOT ALREADY?
Clear skies, reduced cold winds from the north, and a passing western disturbance have allowed daytime heat to build quickly.
Spring seems to be skipping altogether, with minimum temperatures rising 1°C to 4C and maximums up by 2°C or more in recent days.
In Delhi, the city hit over 31°C on February 16, marking the hottest day of the year so far. Other northern cities have seen similar spikes, with air quality worsening due to stagnant warm air.
This early heat is not isolated; reports show temperatures soaring above normal in 27 major cities during the first 15 days of the month.
WILL 2026 BE HOTTER THAN 2025?
Experts say it is too early for a full-year prediction, but the signs are concerning.
IMD forecasts suggest maximum and minimum temperatures will stay 2°C to 4°C above normal in many regions through the rest of February, with gradual rises expected.
If this pattern holds into March and beyond, and if factors like a potential El Nino develop later in the year, 2026 could easily outperform 2025.
Climate trends show India’s warming has accelerated in the past decade due to climate change-driven warming across the planet.
Early-season heat often signals longer, stronger summers with more heatwaves, as seen in recent years.
Scientists link this to the ongoing climate crisis, where extreme events are becoming more frequent.
WHAT COULD THE HEAT MEAN FOR INDIA?
A hotter 2026 could bring tougher challenges.
More heat stress on health, risks to crops like wheat from reduced chill hours, higher power demand, and possible intense heatwaves from April to May. Farmers may face yield drops, while cities could see worse air pollution and water shortages.
While we prepare with hydration, shade, and energy saving, the bigger picture calls for stronger action on emissions to slow this trend.
This warm February is not just odd weather. It is a strong warning that 2026 might set new records, making it hotter than 2025 if the momentum continues.
