The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)’s Climate Prediction Center had recently predicted of a 50 per cent chance of a “strong” or “very strong” El Niño in the coming months. Some researches have also predicted that the upcoming El Niño could be being about a record-breaking weather pattern. More heatwave conditions have been indicated as part of the El Niño impact.
Meanwhile, the Maharashtra government is also gearing up to tackle a possible El Niño impact. The Chief Minister, Devendra Fadnavis has directed all departments to prioritise water management, expedite conservation works and ensure coordinated preparedness.
What is La Niño
La Niño is one of the phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) – a natural climate phenomenon. It usually occurs in the Pacific Ocean, influencing weather patterns across Earth.
It is identified by a warmer surface temperatures or or above-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical eastern and central Pacific Ocean.
As temperatures rise in many parts of India, the country is soon to witness below-normal monsoon this year. According to a report, the reason for above-normal temperature in India could see reduced rainfall due to a likely El Niño weather pattern. The report mentioned that it could add pressure on farmers who are already facing higher input costs following the Middle East conflict.
M. Ravichandran, secretary at the Ministry of Earth Sciences, said at a news conference on Monday, April 20, that the cumulative rain between June and September is likely to be 92 per cent of the long-term average.
The prediction carries a 5% margin of error.
When is El Niño likely to develop?
The report, quoting director general of the India Meteorological Department Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, mentioned that El Niño may likely develop during this year’s rainy season.
Its adverse impact is likely to be felt mainly in August and September, he said. The weather phenomenon, triggered by warming waters in the equatorial Pacific, often brings dry conditions to parts of Asia.
Below-average rains are likely in many parts of the country, except in the northeastern, northwestern and southern peninsular regions where normal- to above-normal precipitation is likely to occur, Mohapatra said.
India received higher-than-usual rains over the past two years, after recording 94% of the long-term mean in 2023. A monsoon is considered normal when cumulative precipitation falls between 96% and 104% of the long-term national average, according to the IMD. Last year, India saw its strongest season in five years, with total rainfall 8% above usual levels.
(With inputs from Bloomberg)
