The sharpest shift in US immigration under Donald Trump may not be at the border — but inside the legal system. A new analysis by David J. Bier of the Cato Institute argues that while illegal crossings have declined, legal immigration — especially high-skilled routes like H-1B visas — has taken a far bigger hit.
“As expected, President Trump has reduced illegal entries but his administration has reduced legal entries far more,” Bier said.
LEGAL IMMIGRATION CUTS OUTPACE BORDER DECLINE
Bier’s core finding is stark: Cuts to legal entries are roughly 2.5 times larger than the reduction in illegal crossings. He notes that illegal immigration was already falling before Trump took office, with much of the drop occurring earlier. The current administration, he says, has largely continued that trend.
By contrast, legal immigration has seen a sharp reversal. “The cut to legal entries was 2.5 times as large,” Bier said, adding that nearly three-quarters of the total drop in immigration now comes from legal pathways.
H-1B VISAS TAKE A DIRECT IT
Among the most affected are H-1B visas – a key route for high-skilled foreign workers, especially in tech, engineering and healthcare from India.
Bier estimates H-1B visa issuances have fallen by about 25 percent, driven in part by a major policy change: a $100,000 fee imposed on companies petitioning for workers from outside the United States.
The impact has been immediate. In a court filing cited by Bier, petitions for such workers dropped by as much as 87 percent after the fee was introduced. Since these visas are tied to new approvals, the full effect is still unfolding.
The decline marks a significant shift for a programme long seen as central to US innovation and global talent recruitment.
The slowdown in H-1B visas is likely to have wider economic implications. These visas are widely used by US companies to fill specialised roles. A sustained decline could affect sectors that rely on global talent, from Silicon Valley tech firms to healthcare systems.
STUDENTS, FAMILIES ALSO AFFECTED
The tightening of legal routes extends beyond skilled workers. International student visas dropped by about 40 percent during peak periods, following visa suspensions, enforcement actions and country-specific bans.
Family-based immigration has also been hit. Visas for spouses and fiance(e)s of US citizens are down by roughly 65 percent, while broader immigrant visa categories have shrunk under sweeping country bans and administrative slowdowns.
ASYLUM, REFUGEE PATHWAYS COLLAPSE
At the southern border, legal asylum entry has nearly disappeared. After the administration eliminated key entry processes, asylum seeker admissions fell by 99.9 percent — from nearly 40,000 per month to just a few dozen.
Refugee admissions have also plunged by about 90 percent, following policy changes and tighter caps.
Bier argues the data points to a broader policy direction. “It is not about stopping ‘illegal’ immigration,” he said. “It is a broader assault on all types of immigration.”
According to his estimates, about 72 percent of the total reduction in immigration stems from cuts to legal entries — not illegal crossings.
The politics of immigration often focus on border numbers. But Bier’s analysis shifts attention to a quieter trend — one that affects students, workers and families navigating legal channels.
For now, the numbers suggest a clear pattern: the steepest drop is not in illegal crossings, but in the legal routes that once defined US immigration.
