Stock market is expected to open lower on Friday as rising tensions in the Middle East continue to affect global investor sentiment.
Gift Nifty futures were trading at 24,649 at around 8:10 am, indicating that the benchmark Nifty 50 may open below Thursday’s closing level of 24,765.9.
The cautious mood comes as the conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran has raised concerns about global energy supply. Investors are worried that the situation could push crude oil prices higher, raise inflation risks and slow down global economic growth.
GLOBAL MARKETS UNDER PRESSURE
Markets around the world are reacting to the escalating conflict in the Middle East, which has now entered its sixth day.
Asian shares fell about 0.7% at the open, reflecting investor caution across the region. In the United States, Wall Street also closed lower overnight. The U.S. dollar strengthened as investors moved towards safer assets amid rising uncertainty.
Iran launched a wave of missiles at Israel and warned it would target Americans “wherever they are” after a U.S. strike on a ship outside the main battle zone.
At the same time, U.S. President Donald Trump said Washington has a role in deciding who leads Iran in the future, while American and Israeli jets continued air strikes in the region.
CRUDE PRICES REMAIN HIGH
Oil prices have been one of the biggest concerns for markets.
Brent crude jumped about 5% on Thursday to reach a 20-month high of $86.28 per barrel. As of 8:10 a.m. IST on Friday, Brent was trading at $84.2 per barrel.
Higher crude prices are a major concern for India as the country imports most of its oil. A sustained rise in oil prices can increase fuel and transport costs, which may push inflation higher. It can also widen the current account deficit and fiscal deficit, and put pressure on the rupee.
To deal with supply risks, Indian refiners are buying large quantities of Russian oil. According to a Reuters report citing sources, refiners are purchasing millions of barrels of prompt Russian crude after the United States issued a 30-day waiver allowing such purchases.
The move comes after the near-complete shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important oil shipping routes.
MARKETS SAW A RECOVERY ON THURSDAY
Despite the global tension, Indian markets managed to recover in the previous session.
Both the Nifty and the Sensex rose about 1.1% on Thursday. The rise came after a sharp selloff earlier in the week triggered by the Middle East crisis.
The gains suggested that markets were trying to stabilise, but analysts say the situation remains fragile because crude prices are still elevated and geopolitical tensions remain high.
FII AND DII TRADING ACTIVITY
Institutional investor activity shows mixed trends in the market.
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have been net sellers so far this month. Month till date, FIIs bought shares worth Rs 46,773.32 crore but sold shares worth Rs 62,574.13 crore, leading to a net outflow of Rs 15,800.81 crore.
Domestic institutional investors (DIIs), however, have been supporting the market. They purchased shares worth Rs 66,191.13 crore and sold shares worth Rs 40,375.72 crore, resulting in a net inflow of Rs 25,815.41 crore.
On March 5, FIIs bought shares worth Rs 14,914.99 crore and sold Rs 18,667.51 crore, leading to a net outflow of Rs 3,752.52 crore. DIIs bought Rs 18,821.10 crore and sold Rs 13,667.73 crore, resulting in a net inflow of Rs 5,153.37 crore.
On March 4, FIIs bought Rs 19,120.99 crore and sold Rs 27,873.64 crore, resulting in a net outflow of Rs 8,752.65 crore. DIIs bought Rs 26,259.37 crore and sold Rs 14,191.20 crore, leading to a net inflow of Rs 12,068.17 crore.
Earlier on March 2, FIIs bought Rs 12,737.34 crore and sold Rs 16,032.98 crore, resulting in a net outflow of Rs 3,295.64 crore. DIIs bought Rs 21,110.66 crore and sold Rs 12,516.79 crore, leading to a net inflow of Rs 8,593.87 crore.
This pattern shows that while foreign investors have been pulling money out of the market, domestic institutions have been buying and helping support stock prices.
WHAT ANALYSTS ARE SAYING
Ajit Mishra, SVP, Research at Religare Broking Ltd, said investors should stay cautious in the current environment.
“In the current environment of heightened volatility, we reiterate our cautious stance and advise participants to remain selective while maintaining disciplined risk management when initiating fresh positions.”
Technical analysts also say that the Nifty is trading near an important level.
Gaurav Udani, Founder of Thincredblu Securities Pvt. Ltd, said the 24,700 to 24,800 range remains a key resistance zone.
“From a technical perspective, the 24,700–24,800 zone remains an important resistance area. A decisive move above this band will be required for momentum to strengthen further.”
He also warned that markets remain highly sensitive to developments in the Middle East.
“However, markets remain sensitive to geopolitical developments. Any negative news flow around the ongoing war could quickly shift sentiment and push Nifty back toward the 24,300–24,400 support zone.”
Udani added that the coming sessions will be important for market direction.
“Looking ahead, Monday’s closing will be crucial. A strong close above 24,800 could technically open room for the index to test the 25,100 levels in the near term. Until then, traders should remain selective and manage risk carefully.”
Given the weak signals from global markets, high crude prices and ongoing geopolitical tensions, Indian markets may begin Friday’s session on a cautious note.
Investors will closely track developments in the Middle East, movements in crude oil prices and global market trends to decide the next direction for the market.
