Key Takeaways
- HSBC forecasts gold could hit $5,000/oz in early 2026
- 2025 average price forecast raised to $3,455/oz
- Multiple major banks share bullish outlook for gold
- Safe-haven demand and central bank buying driving rally
Gold prices are poised for a significant surge, with HSBC projecting they could reach $5,000 per ounce in the first half of 2026. The bank has also raised its 2025 average gold price forecast to $3,455 per ounce, up from $3,355 previously.
Drivers Behind the Gold Rally
According to HSBC’s research note, the current gold rally is fueled by multiple factors including robust central bank purchases, rising ETF inflows, expectations of US rate cuts, and tariff-related uncertainties. The bank emphasized that unlike previous rallies, many new buyers are likely to remain in the gold market for its diversification and safe-haven qualities rather than just for appreciation.
“Unlike previous rallies, we believe many of these new buyers are likely to stay in the gold space — even after the rally ends — not so much for appreciation necessarily as for gold’s diversification and ‘safe haven’ qualities,” HSBC stated.
Spot gold recently breached the $4,300 mark, recording its strongest weekly gain since December 2008. HSBC expects prices to remain elevated through early 2026, though some volatility and moderation could occur in the second half of the year.
Broad Banking Consensus
Other major financial institutions share HSBC’s optimistic outlook. Bank of America and Societe Generale have also forecast gold reaching $5,000 per ounce next year, while ANZ predicts a peak near $4,600 by June 2026, followed by gradual easing.
Analysts attribute the sustained rally to continued safe-haven demand amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, economic policy uncertainty, and expectations of a weakening US dollar. Demand is expected to continue from central banks, institutional funds, and retail investors seeking protection against economic volatility.
“The bull market is likely to continue to press prices higher for 1H’26 and we could very well reach a high of $5,000/oz some time in 1H 2026,” HSBC’s note added.
Long-Term Outlook
HSBC and other analysts emphasize that gold’s appeal extends beyond speculation, rooted in its long-term store-of-value and risk-hedging characteristics. This reinforces gold’s role as a key asset during global uncertainties.
Market watchers globally are closely monitoring gold’s trajectory through 2025 and 2026, with forecasts indicating the precious metal is likely to stay above $4,000 per ounce for the foreseeable future, despite potential short-term fluctuations.
