Key Takeaways
- Storm Melissa has 90% chance of forming in Atlantic
- Three potential tracks could affect Caribbean islands and Florida
- Experts warn US impact is possible though chances remain low
Hurricane trackers have raised Storm Melissa’s development probability to 90%, with meteorologists warning of potential US impacts. The National Hurricane Center increased formation odds from 80% as the system organizes in the Caribbean.
The tropical wave currently has a 70% chance of becoming a tropical depression or named storm within 48 hours. If it strengthens to tropical storm status with winds between 39-73 mph, it will be named Melissa.
Expert Warnings and Uncertain Path
Storm chaser Mitch West cautioned on X: “You would be a fool to say this has zero percent chance of impacting the US.” He noted that while chances are low, historical patterns show such systems can sometimes affect the US coastline.
Matt Devitt, chief meteorologist at Florida’s WINK News, echoed concerns: “Florida is not in the clear yet. Models are analyzing something that hasn’t even formed!” He mentioned a potential cold front around Halloween might block the system, but timing remains uncertain.
Three Potential Scenarios
Forecasting models indicate three main development paths for the system:
- Scenario 1: Rapid strengthening with impact on Hispaniola, affecting Dominican Republic and Haiti
- Scenario 2: Slower development moving toward Nicaragua or Honduras
- Scenario 3: Powerful hurricane formation in northwest Caribbean, threatening Cuba, Bahamas, and potentially South Florida and Keys
Andy Hazelton from University of Miami CIMAS stated he’s “leaning more towards Scenarios 2 or 3” but acknowledged Scenario 1 remains possible.
Caribbean Nations on Alert
The NHC warned that Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica and Cuba should monitor the system’s progress. The agency noted risks of “heavy rain and flooding, strong winds and rough surf later this week.”
Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services agreed there’s “low risk of a US impact, but definitely not a zero chance.” He expressed concerns about energy from the system potentially affecting the Eastern US around Halloween.
Florida Storm Chasers highlighted that latest European model ensembles continue showing Scenario 3 as possible, which would bring the system “dangerously close to Florida.”
Dylan Federico, WSVN meteorologist, expects the system to be named Melissa later this week and urged Caribbean residents to “review their hurricane action plan.”
