Key Takeaways
- India to cut direct Russian oil imports from December due to US sanctions
- Reliance Industries, MRPL, and HPCL-Mittal Energy suspending Russian crude purchases
- Russian shipments expected to decline sharply before gradual recovery through 2026
- Indian refiners shifting to Middle East, US, and other suppliers
India is set to significantly reduce direct imports of Russian crude oil starting December, following new US sanctions targeting Moscow’s largest oil exporters Rosneft and Lukoil. The sanctions, effective November 21, have prompted major Indian refiners accounting for over half of Russia’s crude imports to comply with the restrictions.
Major Refiners Halt Russian Imports
Top importer Reliance Industries Ltd, which maintained a long-term supply contract with Rosneft, will completely stop taking Russian oil. Two other state-controlled refiners—Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd and HPCL-Mittal Energy Ltd—have also announced plans to suspend future imports.
These three companies collectively accounted for more than half of the 1.8 million barrels of Russian crude oil imported during the first half of 2025.
Market Impact and Alternative Sources
According to maritime intelligence firm Kpler, the compliance with sanctions will trigger a sharp decline in Russian oil arrivals in December. However, a gradual recovery is projected through early 2026 via intermediaries and alternative trading routes.
Sumit Ritolia, lead research analyst at Kpler, confirmed: “We see reductions in Russian crude arrival in post-November 21. Most Indian refiners are expected to comply with US sanctions and halt or reduce direct crude purchases from Rosneft and Lukoil.”
Despite the sanctions, Russian barrels are unlikely to disappear entirely from the Indian market. Future imports will rely on more complex logistics and trading arrangements. Meanwhile, Indian refiners are increasing procurement from alternative sources including the Middle East, Latin America, West Africa, Canada, and the United States.
US crude imports to India reached 5,68,000 barrels per day in October—the highest since March 2021—though this surge was driven by economic factors rather than sanctions. These flows are expected to normalize to 250-350 kbd in December and January.
Notably, Nayara Energy’s Vadinar refinery, partially owned by Rosneft and already under EU sanctions, is likely to maintain its Russian crude intake despite the new restrictions.
