On September 2, 1901, two weeks before he became the President of the United States, Theodore Roosevelt set out his foreign policy mantra: “Speak softly and carry a big stick — you will go far.”
“If a man continually blusters, if he lacks civility, a big stick will not save him from trouble; and neither will speaking softly avail, if back of the softness there does not lie strength, power.”
In his two terms in office, Roosevelt used America’s military muscle to enforce the Monroe Doctrine without any braggadocio.
Donald Trump’s conduct during the Iran conflict suggests he is doing exactly the opposite. He has only spoken loudly. And his stick — the mighty US military — has failed so far to tame Iran.
The American president has repeatedly boasted of already winning the war and of Iran begging for a deal. But the fact is: Iran is not ready to have even further talks with Washington. His unilateral declaration on Tuesday of extending the ceasefire has been seen as evidence that he has backed down once again, emboldening Tehran.
But this doesn’t mean the conflict is ending anytime soon. It appears to be taking a more dangerous turn, as Iran’s seizure of two ships in the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday showed. This came two days after the US seized an Iranian cargo ship in the Strait.
“An eye for an eye, a tanker for a tanker,” said Ebrahim Rezaei, a member of Iran’s Parliament and spokesman for the legislature’s national security and foreign policy committee.
Rezaei may not represent the official Tehran position, but there is no doubt that Iran’s stance has hardened since the first round of talks in Islamabad. Even members of the regime who earlier favoured talks are now making uncompromising statements.
Pakistan’s de facto leader and Trump’s favourite Field Marshal, Asim Munir, failed to persuade Iran to come to Islamabad for a second round of talks, despite spending three days in Tehran last week and continuing those efforts after returning home. Trump kept Vice President JD Vance, Steve Witcoff, and Jared Kushner ready to board a flight to Pakistan for the talks, but hardliners in Iran blocked negotiators from attending.
ECONOMIC WAR
Trump’s retaliatory blockade of the Strait of Hormuz appears to be the main stumbling block to further negotiations. Both sides have accused each other of violating the earlier ceasefire. Iran’s closure of the waterway has been a very effective economic weapon.
Similarly, the US blockade is aimed at choking Iran’s economy by preventing its vital imports and exports, 90 per cent of which pass through the strait. The tit-for-tat blockages are choking the world economy with far-reaching consequences.
The Hormuz blockade has disrupted oil supplies more than any other crisis in decades. About a billion barrels of oil have already been lost. But the worst will come if the conflict continues for a few more weeks.
Analysts expect oil prices to average $130 a barrel this year if the strait is not fully reopened soon. That will be disastrous for countries like India, which depend largely on oil imports. It would also inflate gas prices in the US, which could cost Republicans the Senate and the House in November.
But crude oil prices are not the only problem. On Wednesday, German airline Lufthansa announced it was cutting 20,000 flights over the next six months amid surging jet fuel prices. Global prices of jet fuel have risen more than 70 per cent since the start of the war, according to the Platts Jet Fuel Price Index.
Other European airlines have also warned of similar measures. Food prices are also going to go up because fertiliser supplies have been hit. Supplies of refined petroleum, sulphur (needed for metal mining), and helium (needed for semiconductors) have also been affected.
NUCLEAR THREAT
After the failure of the first round of talks in Islamabad, Vance said the sticking point was nuclear. The US seeks the removal of nearly 450 kg of enriched uranium and a commitment to zero enrichment in the future. The current Iranian regime does not look ready to accept such.
Trump launched the war on Iran in the hope of repeating his achievement in Venezuela and quickly finding a Delcy Rodrguez. But his decision could end up making Iran another North Korea, ruled by not a pliant Rodrguez but a hard nut, Kim Jong-un.
That would be a nightmare for Israel. A section of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is totally against any compromise on the nuclear issue, as they see a nuclear weapon as a real insurance policy against any future attack by Israel and the US.
Iran, under the assassinated Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, was not in favour of developing a nuclear weapon, despite claims by Israel and members of the Trump administration. He also asked his country to join the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
However, hardliners in the current Iranian regime have already talked of leaving that treaty. Others, though, still want to use the nuclear issue as a bargaining tool to extract concessions from the United States.
BATTLE OF NERVES
Iran has zero trust in the US — particularly Trump. One of the reasons given by Iran for not going for a second round of talks with the US is that Trump is buying time to restart the war.
The conflict’s outcome will be based on which party can endure more pain. Iran knows how desperate Trump is to secure a deal for political and economic reasons. And it has also managed to create the perception that Iran has won the war and humbled the world’s most powerful military machine.
But Iran’s rulers should also know that the war has hit the country hard. The value of the currency has plummeted. Shortages of food and rising prices have led to protests against the regime before the war. The US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will prevent the import of food and other essential supplies.
The blockade is aimed at stopping Iran’s oil and gas exports — a fourth of its GDP and 80 per cent of export earnings. It has a limited oil storage capacity, so it will have to stop production to protect its infrastructure from damage. But will that make Iran’s hardline leaders blink?
Trump is giving Iran only a few days to decide and present a counterproposal for talks. But there are no indications that the president wants to resume the war, which has already become hugely unpopular in the US.
So, what more can Trump do? So far, his threats of escalation have proven empty. He has surrounded himself with yes-men. He hasn’t been seen speaking to any expert on Iran — he trusts his own instincts more than any expert’s advice.
Iran’s hardliners and Trump’s own reckless approach may have already exhausted Trump’s options for a quick and honourable exit. Either he will be forced by Iran to accept concessions that could prove fatal to him politically, and further reduce the US’s credibility in the world. Or he is compelled to escalate, which could drag the US into another long foreign war, something he campaigned against in the election that brought him to power.
(Naresh Kaushik is a former editor at the BBC and Associated Press. He is based in London. Views expressed are personal.)
