India is likely to see below-average monsoon rains for the first time in three years in 2026 due to the El Nio effect, the weather department said on Monday.
According to the government, the monsoon, which typically arrives over the southern state of Kerala around June 1 and retreats by mid-September, is expected to reach 92 per cent of the long-period average this year.
“Currently, weak La Nina-like conditions are transitioning to neutral conditions. But after June it’s very likely that El Nio will develop,” Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director-general of the India Meteorological Department, said.
While most parts of the country will experience below-normal rainfall, some areas in Northeast, Northwest and South Peninsular India, are likely to face normal to above-normal monsoon.
The India Meteorological Department defines normal rainfall as between 96 per cent and 104 per cent of a 50-year average of 87 cm (35 inches) for the four-month season.
El Nio is a weather phenomenon that occurs when ocean temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean rise above normal, typically resulting in hot and dry weather in Southeast Asia and other parts of the world.
In the past, India experienced below-average rainfall during most El Nio years, often leading to droughts that destroyed crops and forced authorities to limit the export of some grains.
The forecast comes at a time when there is rising concern over farm output and growth in Asia’s third-largest economy as it battles inflation driven by the Iran war.
The monsoon is the lifeblood of India’s economy, delivering almost 70 per cent of the rainfall needed to water farms and replenish aquifers and reservoirs.
(With inputs from Reuters)
