Stock markets are likely to open higher on Monday, supported by strong earnings from banking majors HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank. However, rising oil prices and fresh tensions in the Middle East may keep gains limited.
GIFT Nifty futures were trading at 24,469.50 at 7:57 am, indicating that the Nifty 50 may open above Friday’s close of 24,353.55.
Aakash Shah, Technical Research Analyst at Choice Equity Broking Private Limited, said markets may open with a positive tone.
“Indian equity markets are expected to open on a mildly positive note on Monday, supported by firm global cues and a rise in GIFT Nifty,” he said.
“GIFT Nifty is currently trading around 24,473, indicating a positive start for domestic benchmark indices.”
He added that overall trends remain steady. “Global equities remain stable and crude oil volatility has eased, which is supporting sentiment.”
Global cues remain mixed. Asian markets were up 0.6%, but concerns around the Middle East continue to affect sentiment.
Oil prices have moved higher. WTI crude is at $88.92, up 6.05%, while Brent crude is at $95.18, up 5.31%. The rise is linked to supply concerns as tensions in the region disrupt shipping routes, especially through the Strait of Hormuz.
The ceasefire in the Iran conflict, which is set to last till Tuesday, remains uncertain. The situation has become tense after the US seized an Iranian cargo ship, and Iran signalled possible retaliation. It has also tightened control over the Strait of Hormuz and rejected fresh talks with the US.
Higher oil prices are generally negative for India, as the country imports a large part of its crude oil needs.
BANKING STOCKS LEND SUPPORT
Strong quarterly results from HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank are expected to support the market.
Both banks reported better-than-expected profits for the March quarter, helped by steady loan growth. Given their heavy weight in the indices, these stocks could help keep markets in the green.
Last week, both Sensex and Nifty gained about 1.3%, marking their second straight week of gains. On April 17, the Nifty closed at 24,353.55, up 157 points or 0.65%, while the Sensex rose 505 points to 78,493.54.
Buying was seen across sectors such as FMCG, metals, oil and gas, power and capital goods, which gained around 1–2%. Midcap and smallcap stocks also moved higher, though IT stocks saw some profit booking.
OUTLOOK, LEVELS AND INVESTOR ACTIVITY
Talking about recent market movement, Shah said, “Benchmark indices ended higher in the previous session, reflecting continued positive sentiment in the market.”
On sectoral trends, he said buying was broad-based. “Strength was seen in FMCG, metals, oil and gas, power and capital goods stocks, while some profit booking was seen in IT and defensive pockets.”
From a technical view, Shah said the trend remains positive but with caution. “The Nifty 50 continues to hold above the crucial 24,300 zone, reinforcing the near-term positive trend.”
“Immediate support is placed near 24,200–24,250, while resistance is seen around 24,550–24,600.”
He added that further gains depend on key levels. “A sustained move above this resistance band could extend the ongoing rally, while failure to hold higher levels may result in range-bound movement.”
On Bank Nifty, he said, “The index remains in a positive structure, though some consolidation at higher levels cannot be ruled out.”
“Resistance is seen near 57,000–57,200, while support is placed around 56,200–56,100.”
Institutional activity remains mixed. Foreign institutional investors bought shares worth Rs 683 crore on April 17, marking the third straight session of buying. Domestic institutional investors, however, sold shares worth Rs 4,721 crore on the same day.
India VIX stood at around 17.20, indicating relatively stable volatility levels.
Overall, markets are expected to open higher, supported by strong earnings and global cues. However, rising oil prices and geopolitical risks may keep the market range-bound during the day.
