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US-Iran update: What happens after Ali Khamenei’s death? Chaos, election and new Supreme Leader

In a new update regarding the Iran-US escalation following coordinated strikes on Iran by the US and Israel, it was reported that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had been killed. In a recent Truth Social post, Trump confirmed that Iran’s Ayatollah Khamenei has been killed. He wrote, “Khamenei, one of the most evil people in History, is dead.”

Reuters cited an Israeli official to report that Khamenei’s body had been discovered. Since the raids started, Ali Khamenei has not been heard from, and satellite photography has revealed that the initial bombardment severely damaged his compound.

Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, had earlier told NBC News that Khamenei and Masoud Pezeshkian were still alive “as far as I know”.

Succession uncertainty

The initial wave of Israeli and US strikes early on Saturday morning targeted air defense systems and senior Iranian officials.

Reuters cited sources to report that the CIA believed that members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) were likely to take his position if Ali Khamenei was killed in the operation.

According to the sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss intelligence concerns, the intelligence agency’s findings did not definitively conclude any scenario.

Election of a new supreme leader

The Supreme Leader of Iran holds ultimate authority over political, military and religious areas. The possibility of Khamenei’s absence raises serious concerns for Iran’s constitutional succession process, regardless of whether he has passed away.

According to the Constitution of the Islamic Republic, an Assembly of Experts comprised of 88 senior clerics convenes to choose a successor upon the death of the Supreme Leader.

The Guardian Council (GC), a 12-member council, oversees every election in Iran. Out of the 12 members of the GC, 6 are priests who are appointed by the SL. The Chief Justice, chosen by the former SL, nominates a list of jurists, and the parliament then appoints the remaining 6 members of the council.

The candidate is then potentially chosen from within the clerical establishment and must have the GC’s prior approval.

Potential chaos

Israeli military sources stated that the offensive would continue for as long as required to bring about a change that would persist “for years to come.”

Numerous explosions were reported in Iran, notably in Tehran. Numerous students were killed at a southern Iranian elementary school, according to Iranian state television.

Iranian authorities stated that the US attacks had not caught them off guard and that there would be “long-lasting and extensive consequences.” The Iranian authorities also stated that every scenario, including those “that had not been previously considered, was on the table.”

In recent weeks, analysts have cautioned again and time again that an unrestricted US or Israeli military campaign against Iran might cause chaos and violence throughout much of the Middle East and seriously destabilize the region.

Global markets could be shaken by the strikes, especially if Iran is successful in making the Strait of Hormuz dangerous for trade. In 2025, the strait was traversed by one-third of global oil exports that were shipped by sea.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have also stated that Iran would continue its retaliation until “the enemy is decisively defeated” and threatened all US bases and interests in the area.

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