Is China Winning the Trade War Against the US? Here’s What the Data Says
Recent trade data reveals China is rapidly diversifying its trade partnerships despite ongoing tensions with the United States. Following a February 2025 meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping, tariffs were reduced by 10%, but the effective rate remains at 47% for Chinese goods entering the US.
Key Takeaways
- China’s exports to the US fell 27% in September year-over-year
- Chinese overall exports grew 6.1% this year as trade diversified
- China imported zero US soybeans in September for the first time in years
- American beef exports to China dropped 47% January-July 2025
China’s Export Strategy Shifts Amid Trade War
Even before Trump’s second term began, China’s exports to the US were declining, and this trend has accelerated in recent months. September exports to the US totaled $34.3 billion compared to $47 billion during the same month last year – a sharp 27% decline.
Despite this steep drop in US trade, China’s overall exports increased 6.1% this year, with September showing an 8.3% year-over-year increase as exports to other markets surged. China is systematically diversifying both its export destinations and import sources, reducing dependence on American goods.
Soybean Trade: Major Shift in Commodity Flows
Soybeans, a crucial commodity in trade negotiations, have seen dramatic changes. For the first time in years, China imported no soybeans from the US in September, turning instead to Brazil and Argentina.
The Argentinian government’s temporary suspension of soybean export tax prompted China to purchase approximately 1.2 million metric tons from the South American country. Following the Trump-Xi meeting, China committed to buying 12 million metric tons of soybeans this season and 25 million metric tons annually for the next three years, according to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
American Beef Exports Face Steep Decline
China, previously the third-largest buyer of American beef, has significantly reduced purchases. From January to July 2025, China purchased $481 million worth of American beef, accounting for just 8% of US beef exports – a 47% decline compared to the same period last year when Chinese purchases represented 15% of US beef exports.
China has filled this gap by increasing beef imports from Australia and Argentina after failing to renew contracts with US suppliers. The decline accelerated in September, with China purchasing only $11 million worth of American beef – a dramatic 90% drop from the $110 million purchased in September 2024.
The data clearly indicates China’s successful diversification strategy amid ongoing trade tensions, though both economies continue to navigate the complex relationship.
