Trump Seeks Elusive Trade Deal with Xi in High-Stakes Meeting
US President Donald Trump aims for a quick diplomatic victory in his pivotal Thursday meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, though analysts expect any agreement will fall short of the comprehensive deal he has publicly suggested.
Key Takeaways
- Trump seeks to extend tariff pauses in exchange for Chinese concessions on soybeans, fentanyl, and rare-earth exports
- Analysts predict limited agreement to reduce tensions rather than resolve core conflicts
- Taiwan’s status and semiconductor access remain potential bargaining chips
- Current tariff understanding expires in November, creating urgency
Diverging Negotiating Styles
Trump’s transactional approach contrasts sharply with Xi’s long-term strategic thinking. While the US president uses leverage for short-term wins, the Chinese leader leverages his country’s manufacturing and resource advantages for sustained advantage.
“Both sides are clearly seeking stability in the relationship,” said Henrietta Levin, former White House China adviser. “But stability on whose terms is an open question, and one where I think unfortunately Beijing is holding the cards.”
Rare-Earth Standoff
Trump has demanded China reverse severe export curbs on rare-earth materials, but Beijing views this dominance as a critical strategic advantage. Sun Chenghao of Tsinghua University noted that reversing such policies would require “monumental concession from the US” that’s currently “politically untenable in Washington.”
Taiwan Concerns
China hawks worry Trump’s dealmaking appetite could lead to concessions on Taiwan. The president has acknowledged the island will likely be discussed, describing it as “the apple of his eye” for Xi.
“President Trump doesn’t have conventional views on Taiwan and has been notably more lukewarm in his support,” said Patricia Kim of Brookings Institution, suggesting Beijing might see this as an area for potential dealmaking.
Regional Implications
The trade tensions have heightened risks across Asia, including for US allies also facing Trump’s tariffs. The president embarks Friday on a three-nation tour through Malaysia, Japan, and South Korea, where other trade negotiations remain pending.
William Chou of Hudson Institute noted that strengthening agreements with US partners would improve Trump’s leverage with Xi: “If the aim is still to try and strike an effective deal with Beijing, you might as well strengthen your leverage as best you can.”
