Nepal is gearing up for a very crucial election this week, the first after last September’s violent youth-led uprising in Kathmandu and beyond—popularly called the Gen Z protest—led to the overthrow of the government. Voting for the Pratinidhi Sabha (house of representatives), the lower house of Nepal’s parliament, will take place on March 5.
The election will pit well entrenched mainstream parties against a relatively new one that many believe could be the front runner. It will also decide whether the political careers of old guards who have been the most visible faces of Nepal’s politics and government for decades will remain relevant or a younger set of leaders will take charge.
“It’s an unexpected and special election. Our constitution has no provision of snap polls, but it became necessary due to what happened in September. The formation of the interim government and dissolution of the parliament took place as special provisions which were not there in our constitution. The first expectation from this election is that it will bring the constitution on track,” said Krishna Khanal, retired professor of political science in Tribhuvan University.
The Gen Z Protest
What started as a peaceful protest by thousands of youths on the streets of Kathmandu on September 8 took a turn for the worse when police opened fire leading to 19 deaths and injuries to many others. While the protests were primarily against the government’s move to ban 26 social media platforms, the greater demand was for a control on corruption, rule of law and good governance.
The next day youths turned up in far greater numbers and targeted important buildings in the capital such as the prime minister’s office, the parliament, several key ministries, the Supreme Court and set on fire the offices of major political parties. They also assaulted a former prime minister and his wife, who was foreign minister in the incumbent government.
The fury spread outside the Kathmandu Valley as well with mobs targeting government offices, houses and businesses of prominent politicians. At some places, prisons were broken down leading to many criminals escaping. The violence resulted in the ouster of Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli.
Three days later, an interim government led by former chief justice, Sushila Karki, assumed office as the country’s first woman prime minister. The protests had claimed 77 lives and left more than 2,300 injured.
“This election is different as it is being held in the backdrop of last year’s protests seeking end to corruption, rule of law and good governance. After the interim government took charge, leaders of the protest signed an agreement with it on changes they want in Nepal. So, the new government will be under pressure to implement the deal,” said Bipin Adhikari, professor of constitutional law in Kathmandu University.
Over 18.9 million voters will exercise the ballot on March 5 to elect 275 parliamentarians. Of them, 165 will get elected through direct voting while the rest 110 through proportional representation — parties will be allocated these seats based on the number of popular votes they get. There are 65 parties contesting the polls and over 3,400 candidates in the fray—this time nearly 3,000 of them are below the age of 60.
Voting will start at 7am on Thursday and end at 5pm the same day. Counting will start immediately and the results of the 165 first-past-the-post seats will likely be declared within two to three days. Results for the remaining seats will take a few more days.
Ire Against Old Parties
The Nepali Congress was headed by Sher Bahadur Deuba, a 79-year-old who had been prime minister on five occasions. KP Sharma Oli of CPN-UML was 74 and was prime minister for the third time before the protests forced him to quit. And the Maoists were headed by Pushpa Kamal Dahal (Prachanda), 71, who also held the Prime Minister’s post thrice. The Nepalese youth were tired of them and wanted reform and change.
The protests had some effect. In October, Deuba was succeeded by Gagan Thapa, a 49-year-old parliamentarian with a mass appeal who will also be the party’s prime ministerial candidate for this election. The party also brought in many young faces.
Scarred by the protests and physical attack, Deuba has decided not to contest these polls. Another former prime minister, Jhala Nath Khanal, whose house in Kathmandu was torched during the protests and his wife was set on fire will also not contest. Though Oli is still the president of CPN-UML, the party has also brought in new faces.
The Leftist parties in Nepal also made changes. In a rebranding exercise last November, several of these unified as the Nepali Communist Party (NCP). Prachanda was made the coordinator of the new outfit and another former prime minister, Madhav Kumar Nepal of Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Socialist, became the joint coordinator.
“There’s talk of old parties and new parties and also of old faces and new faces. I feel all major parties are in the contest. The results may be a bit different, but I don’t expect to see much fundamental change,” said Khanal.
The Party in Focus
The Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), a party formed four years ago by a popular TV host, is in focus in this election. The centrist party contested the 2022 election and emerged as the fourth largest with 21 seats. It was also part of a coalition government for six months in 2024 with founder Rabi Lamichchane assuming the post of deputy prime minister.
The RSP is also in focus because of the entry of Balendra Shah, popularly known as Balen, into the party in December last year. A rapper and former mayor of Kathmandu, the 35-year-old was one of the prominent faces of the protests and was expected to become the interim prime minister. He is the RSP’s prime ministerial candidate and will take on Oli in Jhapa. Shah and his party attracted large crowds during campaigning which ended on Monday and is said to be the front runner.
“RSP is being seen as the party to beat in this election. But there’s been some progress made by Nepali Congress, which is strong as ever and has brought in young faces. The CPN-UML is also gaining some ground. It is difficult to say who will come out on top but RSP, Nepali Congress, CPN-UML and NCP are likely to become the top four parties,” said Adhikari.
The election will also decide the fortunes of old parties like Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP), which wants a return of the monarchy, and several smaller players from the Terai-Madhes region which borders India. Though these parties might not make a big impact, they could play a role in government formation if no single party manages to secure the 138 seats needed to form government.
A Hung House
“A hung parliament is a distinct possibility. It seems we are headed for a coalition government. RSP is contesting this election targeting Nepali Congress as its key competitor. It remains to be seen if the two will come together to form government,” said Adhikari.
“Once the results of the 165 direct election seats are out, it will be easier to figure out what shape the next government will take. Meetings will take place between the same parties, which were bitterly contesting against each other, to try and form the government,” said Khanal.
“If no coalition forms, our constitution provides that the largest party can form the government. The President can call the leader of the largest party to form the government provided it gets vote of confidence from the House within a month,” he added.
