As the war between US-Israel and Iran entered Day 4, Tehran’s strategy appears to be pressuring the Gulf governments to push Washington to de-escalate the conflict. Ever since the US and Israel struck Iran last week, killing its Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Tehran has launched a barrage of missiles targeting at least nine Gulf countries and US military bases located there. This has drawn in other countries across the region, who are on the verge of ending their neutrality in the war.
It’s been four days since the conflict started, but Iran has managed to hold out longer than the US and Iran expected. Iran knows that even relatively low-tech projectiles are enough to impose significant economic damage on the Gulf nations.
GULF ENERGY FACILITIES UNDER ATTACK
By targeting critical infrastructure, like airports, ports and military facilities in Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain, Iran has shown its capability to disrupt trade, travel and investor confidence, triggering what analysts describe as economic paralysis.
The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), which includes Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, are vulnerable due to its proximity to Iran and hosting of US military bases. The UAE, in particular, is a key financial hub, and its stock markets have already been affected, with a two-day closure following the Iranian strikes.
Apart from an Iranian drone strike on Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura refinery, Oman has reported an attack on an oil tanker off the coast of Muscat. Qatar has also said that its energy facilities in the industrial city of Ras Laffan were targeted by drones.
IRAN’S CALCULATED STRATEGY
Against this backdrop, Iran’s calculation is straightforward: piling on economic pain might prompt Gulf countries to push the US to step back from the conflict and open negotiations.
However, the strategy has significant risks. The reckless and indiscriminate attacks by Iran seem to be driving the Gulf states closer to the US and Israel, particularly on intelligence-sharing and missile defence.
The GCC countries not only have condemned Iran’s attacks, but they have also emphasised their right to self-defence and collective defence under the UN Charter.
For now, the situation remains fluid, with the US, Israel, and Iran engaged in a complex game of cat and mouse. The question remains whether Iranian resolve or the financial nerves of the Gulf countries will break first.
