The planet is heating up at an alarming pace, so much so that it may even breach a critical climate threshold within the next four years.
Earth’s temperature is not only rising but has been picking up speed since around 2015, according to researchers at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK).
The study, published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, is the first to statistically confirm that the rate of warming has shifted significantly in recent years.
The findings carry alarming relevance and serious consequences for India and the rest of the world.
HOW FAST IS EARTH GETTING HOTTER?
Over the past decade, global temperatures have been rising at roughly 0.35°C per decade, which is nearly double the pace of 0.2°C per decade recorded between 1970 and 2015.
This makes it the fastest warming observed in any decade since instrumental temperature records began in 1880.
To arrive at this figure, the researchers had to resort to a different method.
They took out the natural, short-term climate events that can temporarily push temperatures up or down. These included El Nino cycles, volcanic eruptions, and fluctuations in solar activity.
They then analysed several major global temperature datasets, including data from Nasa and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Home (NOAA) to isolate the true long-term warming signal.
The adjusted data showed the acceleration in warming since 2015 with a statistical certainty of over 98 per cent, consistent across all datasets and independent of the analysis method used, according to lead author Stefan Rahmstorf.
WILL EARTH CROSS 1.5°C?
Even after accounting for El Nino and the recent solar maximum, 2023 and 2024 still rank as the two warmest years on record since measurements began. That is deeply worrying in the context of the Paris Agreement.
The Paris Agreement is a global climate agreement signed by multiple nations, including India, to work collectively and limit the global rise in temperature to 1.5°C.
If the Earth continues to warm at the rate it has in the past decade, then limiting the warming to the 1.5°C threshold is unlikely. The threshold might even be crossed by 2030, warned Rahmstorf.
That is less than four years away.
For India, already grappling with intensifying heatwaves, erratic monsoons, and rising sea levels, a world that crosses the 1.5°C threshold ahead of schedule would mean compounding climate risks arriving sooner than projected.
The world’s most populous country is already weathering changing weather patterns like El Nino-linked disruptions to the monsoon and record heat events. These events are growing intense every year and are also becoming more frequent across the subcontinent.
How quickly the Earth continues to warm ultimately depends on how rapidly global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels are brought down to zero.
The new study does not identify the causes of the acceleration but its message highlights something more urgent: the window to act is closing rapidly. And if humanity wants to avert global disasters, it has to act.
