Every election provides you with visual clues. One that tells you which way the wind is blowing.
To me that moment was every time Vijay stepped out in his van to campaign. In my three decades of covering elections in India, I have never seen common men and women showering a politician with gifts. (Barring Lalu Prasad Yadav in the 1990s, my friend from Patna told me.) But here was Vijay receiving teddy bears, cricket bats, shades, portraits, fruit drinks, coconut water and more. It showed the people were emotionally connected with Vijay. He wasn’t seen as yet another candidate canvassing for votes. ‘Vijay anna’, ‘Vijay thambi’ was seen as one of their own.
The other clues were two strategic mistakes on the DMK’s part. Publicly it refused to acknowledge Vijay’s presence but privately it did everything to sully his image, aggressively pushing the narrative on his private life, including his divorce. Vijay’s admirers refused to buy into that and the attempt to use the dirty tricks boomeranged on the DMK.
The other error MK Stalin made was to ignore the groundswell of anger against his party. Even though the chief minister was considered personally popular, his party leaders and cadre were seen as arrogant. The DMK’s victories in the last three elections – the two Lok Sabha polls in 2019 and 2024 and the assembly polls of 2021 – made them feel entitled. Worse, their mouthpieces on social media platforms were rude and only amplified the anger against the party. Every time I saw a Vijay supporter being labelled a ”Tharkuri” (rude Tamil slang for an idiot), I knew Stalin was losing votes by the dozen. Throwing the DMK out of the treasury benches is the revenge of those insulted as ”Tharkuris”.
But did Vijay’s TVK pull off this political heist and emerge as the single largest party only on the basis of the mistakes committed by the DMK?
No. Vijay carried no historical baggage of corruption cases or unfulfilled promises. He provided a choice to those fed up with the duopoly of the Dravidian giants. His whistle symbol on the EVM was metaphorically pressing the reset button in the theatre of Tamil Nadu politics.
Given the flop electoral CV of actor-turned-politicians like Vijaykanth, Sarathkumar and Kamal Haasan, Vijay was dismissed as yet another political wannabe. What was missed was that his fan network had worked like a shadow political outfit for close to a decade, doing social work at the street level. His Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam weaponised the fan club as a formal political entity.
Three, as opposed to the DMK and the AIADMK that tried to fortify themselves with alliances with several smaller parties, Vijay went solo. This despite the pressures that were sought to be put on him through the CBI appearances in connection with the Karur stampede case, the SOPs that imposed several restrictions on his political meetings and the refusal to release his farewell movie, ‘Jana Nayagan’. In the mind of the common voter, he came across as someone with spunk and courage to take on the Goliaths.
The biggest advantage Vijay possessed was his appeal among the 2 crore plus young voters, under the age of 40. Suffice to say, he captured this demographic handsomely. It was this constituency that helped him overcome the disadvantage of not campaigning enough. The shareability factor over social media platforms was the highest for the TVK’s digital-first campaign as the gen-Z crowd helped amplify Vijay’s message. As opposed to the other parties that had to shell out 300 rupees, biryani and liquor to make people attend the rallies and public meetings addressed by their leaders, Vijay was a magnet who attracted crowds without having to pay for attendance.
The DMK reacted by pressing Kollywood into service. But the more actors like Prakash Raj and Sathyaraj sought to rubbish Vijay’s foray into politics, the more the support grew for the TVK. It allowed Vijay to play the underdog card – the one man against the system. It was like an extension of the roles he played in his movies. The voter knew the rest of the script and knew what to do next.
What made Vijay’s emergence special is that in a caste-obsessed society like Tamil Nadu, his appeal cut across caste, gender, religion lines. The youth trusted his vision and voted for a more relatable leader. Two, as opposed to the two Dravidian majors, the TVK – with the exception of a few moneybag candidates – did not distribute money on the eve of the election. To my mind, these are the two big positives from this election.
It was on the basis of these indications that I told a few close friends in writing on April 12 – eleven days before Tamil Nadu voted – that Vijay will make it. Because everywhere you went, you heard people say – ”Maatrum venum” (we want change). In a nutshell, this election was a vote against the status quo, for ”Maatrum” and for hope. While the reel ‘Jana Nayagan’ is likely to release later this month, the real ‘Jana Nayagan’ has been released at a counting centre near you.
