The mass cancellation of flights to and from bullion hub Dubai has left traders unable to move their metal, highlighting the potential bottlenecks to physical gold flows that could emerge from an escalating Iran war.
The United Arab Emirates is an important spoke in the global gold market, refining and exporting bullion to buyers across Asia, as well as serving as a conduit for shipments from Switzerland and London. An unprecedented wave of Iranian missile fire over the weekend led the country to partially close its airspace and suspend flights in Dubai, grounding shipments of gold and silver carried in the cargo holds of passenger aircraft.
Representatives of several trading and logistics firms said their metal shipments to and from Dubai had been paused indefinitely. One said Monday was spent scrambling to reroute consignments that had been due to transit through the emirate on their way to final destinations.
Shipping bullion by road to airports elsewhere in the region is often not feasible, as transporting high-value cargo overland is considered too risky, the people said, speaking on condition of anonymity because they were not authorised to comment publicly.
Gold is moved between trading hubs in the cargo holds of passenger aircraft for well under $1 an ounce per trip. The volume that can be carried on a single flight is capped—not by weight, but by value—as insurers will only underwrite a few tons on any one plane.
Transporting gold overland introduces a web of complications compared to the more common method of shipping by air, particularly when it involves crossing international borders, said Lars Johansson, a consultant and veteran of the precious metals logistics industry.
“There are ways to manage the risk,” he said. “What could technically go in one armoured truck could go in three armoured trucks. You may have an escort of armed guards.”
Still, the process is not ideal, Johansson said, adding that even crossing borders with weapons might not be permitted.
While the disruptions in Dubai are expected to be temporary, a prolonged suspension of flights from the UAE could pose a challenge for traders in India and other markets that source their metal from the country. Premiums for bullion in Saudi Arabia rose significantly on Monday, likely an indication of worries about limited product availability, said Philip Newman, managing director at consultancy Metals Focus Ltd.
More than 12,300 flights have been canceled across the globe since Iran’s first retaliatory strike, according to Flightradar24. Emirates Airlines, the world’s largest international carrier, extended the suspension of scheduled flights to and from Dubai until Wednesday night. Etihad Airways prolonged its halt to operations until Thursday.
The grounding of passenger flights has posed serious challenges for gold traders before. At the onset of the pandemic in 2020, travel restrictions prevented traders from swiftly moving metal between London and New York. The disruption created unprecedented arbitrage opportunities for banks that were able to step in and profit, such as JPMorgan Chase & Co.
