Iran’s missile and drone attacks have sharply declined under sustained US and Israeli air strikes, but Tehran still retains the ability to threaten the region and is actively trying to widen the conflict, according to Hudson Institute senior fellow Can Kasapolu.
Speaking exclusively to India Today, Kasapolu said the joint US–Israeli campaign, known as Operation Epic Fury and Roaring Lion, has significantly reduced Iran’s strike tempo by targeting launch infrastructure across the country.
“Iran’s missile and drone salvos have declined by roughly 70 to 85 percent since the first day of strikes,” he said. “But Tehran’s kill chain remains intact, meaning its remaining missile and drone units can still conduct attacks.”
The slowdown comes after US and Israeli forces intensified efforts to destroy Iranian missile launchers and drone sites. According to estimates cited by Kasapolu, Iran initially launched about 350 missiles per day at the start of the war but is now firing around 50 daily.
The shift largely reflects allied strikes against Iran’s transporter-erector-launchers, which are critical for launching ballistic missiles.
“Destroying these launchers reduces Tehran’s ability to generate large waves of strikes, even if it still has missiles in storage,” he said.
GULF STATES INCREASINGLY IN IRAN’S CROSSHAIRS
Even as Iran’s overall strike tempo drops, Kasapolu said Tehran is redirecting its attacks across the wider Gulf region, targeting countries that host US military infrastructure.
“In the early stages, about 40 percent of Iran’s missiles were aimed at Israel,” he said. “Now that figure has dropped to just over 20 percent, suggesting Tehran is shifting its targeting priorities.”
According to open-source intelligence cited by the analyst, Iran has already launched roughly 585 ballistic missiles and more than 1,500 drones since the conflict began on February 28.
The United Arab Emirates has absorbed some of the heaviest attacks, with 189 ballistic missiles and about 941 drones directed toward the country.
Kasapolu said the pattern shows Tehran relying heavily on swarms of Shahed loitering munitions to overwhelm regional air defenses.
“Massed drone attacks are designed to saturate defenses and impose constant pressure,” he said.
Despite the scale of the attacks, Gulf states have largely managed to intercept incoming threats. The UAE’s air defense systems, he said, have achieved interception rates exceeding 90 percent in many engagements.
But the situation could become more difficult if the conflict continues at the current pace.
“Magazine depth may become a constraint,” Kasapolu warned, noting that missile defense often requires two or three interceptors for every incoming missile.
US STRIKES TARGET DRONES BEFORE LAUNCH
The United States has also stepped up efforts to destroy Iranian drones before they take off.
Kasapolu said American forces are now hitting Shahed drones while they are still on the ground, an approach made possible by Washington’s dominance of the airspace over Iran.
“The US currently operates with both air and information superiority over Iran,” he said, pointing to reports of MQ-9 Reaper drones flying over Iranian cities such as Shiraz.
Still, the relatively low cost of Shahed drones gives Tehran a potential advantage in a prolonged conflict.
“Defending against these drones often requires interceptors that are far more expensive than the drones themselves,” Kasapolu said.
IRAN TARGETING US RADAR NETWORK
Tehran has also begun attacking the sensor infrastructure that supports US missile defenses across the Middle East.
Kasapolu said Iranian strikes have targeted radar systems in Jordan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, part of what appears to be a strategy to weaken the region’s early-warning network.
“Iran is focusing on the sensor layer that underpins the US-led air-and missile-defense architecture,” he said.
One notable strike reportedly damaged a $1.1 billion US early-warning radar system in Qatar, though the extent of the damage remains unclear.
HEZBOLLAH OPENS NEW FRONT
The conflict has also expanded after Hezbollah launched attacks on Israel from Lebanon, opening a northern front.
Kasapolu said the group’s involvement appears coordinated with Iran’s broader strategy.
“Hezbollah’s attacks are designed to complement Iran’s missile campaign and place additional pressure on Israel’s air defenses,” he said.
While the militia’s intervention may not dramatically shift the military balance, it could deepen the regional crisis by drawing Israel into broader operations in Lebanon.
KEY FACTORS TO WATCH
Kasapolu said several developments in the coming days could determine how the war unfolds.
One critical indicator will be whether Iran’s missile launches fall further.
“A drop to fewer than 30 launches per day would suggest that the coalition is successfully degrading Iran’s strike capacity,” he said.
Another major factor is whether Tehran attempts to expand the war beyond the Middle East.
Recent incidents—including missile activity near Trkiye and drone strikes near the Azerbaijan border—suggest Iran may already be testing that approach.
“If Tehran widens the battlefield geographically, the escalation risks rise significantly,” Kasapolu said.
For now, he said the central strategic question remains whether the US-led coalition can dismantle Iran’s long-range strike capabilities before the conflict spreads further across the region.
