The Indian rupee eked out a gain versus the dollar on Monday, as hedging interest from importers and upcoming maturities in forward contracts undercut most of an early advance driven by positive sentiment after the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling on tariffs.
The rupee ended at 90.8825 per U.S. dollar, up 0.1% on the day. The currency had opened stronger at 90.76 per dollar on the back of the U.S. Supreme Court striking down President Donald Trump’s emergency tariffs, but gave up gains as the session progressed.
Why did rupee reverse some gains?
Bankers attributed the reversal to hedging demand from importers and cautious positioning ahead of a wall of forward maturities and geopolitical tensions.
Bankers said the Reserve Bank of India’s reliance on the non-deliverable forward market to manage rupee volatility is now expected to weigh on the currency, with contracts worth at least $7 billion due to mature this week and more due in the weeks ahead.
Selling dollar/rupee forwards in the NDF market lets the RBI support the rupee without an immediate drain on foreign exchange reserves or domestic liquidity. However, when these contracts mature, counterparties may need to buy dollars, and this puts pressure on the rupee, unless the central bank decides to roll them over.
“There were outflows in the market, and traders are also positioning for the NDF maturity through the week,” said Anil Bhansali, head of treasury at Finrex Treasury Advisors.
Importers have largely remained active on corrective dips in the dollar/rupee pair, stepping in to hedge their near-term requirements, traders said.
The pullback in Indian equities from the day’s highs further reduced appetite to push the pair lower, while volatility in oil prices added another layer of caution for traders.
Asian currencies and equities began the week on a positive note after the U.S. Supreme Court ruling undercut tariff measures, but the relief was partial as Trump subsequently unveiled a 10% tariff on imports from all countries, later increasing it to 15%.
