Asian countries’ growing support for carbon capture and storage (CCS) to reduce fossil fuel emissions could result in nearly 25 billion tonnes of additional greenhouse gases by 2050, undermining the Paris Agreement and exposing their economies to risks, according to a new report released on Monday.
Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a technology designed to trap carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from sources such as power plants and industrial facilities, prevent them from entering the atmosphere, and store them underground in geological formations.
The study by Climate Analytics, a global climate science and policy institute, assessed current and prospective CCS deployment in China, India, Japan, South Korea, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore and Australia, which together account for more than half of global fossil fuel use and greenhouse gas emissions.
It said emissions from many Asian economies, led by India and other developing countries in South and Southeast Asia, show no imminent sign of peaking and rapidly declining, but must quickly reach this tipping point.
While Asia’s biggest emitters, China and India, are largely disconnected from the Japan-South Korea-Southeast Asia-Australia CCS nexus, their future pathways will ultimately most influence global climate action. China already has the second-largest CCS pipeline in Asia, after Australia, while India has little notable presence so far.
The report noted that India, a major producer of steel and cement, could increasingly turn to CCS in these hard-to-abate sectors. But cheaper and less risky options such as renewable energy, electrification and green hydrogen are already available to address industrial emissions.
“Leading regional emitters China and India have less clear CCS plans. China already has a strong CCS presence, but it is also the most advanced country in deploying zero-emissions technologies. If China or India turn more decisively to future CCS dependence, it could have disastrous climate results,” the report said.
India is already the world’s second-largest steel consumer and is expected to see annual demand growth of 6.3 per cent between 2025 and 2030. Cement consumption in India and other South Asian countries could grow by more than 40 per cent during 2025-2035, the study said.
The report also warned that CCS projects worldwide have consistently underperformed, with capture rates often closer to 50 per cent rather than the 90-95 per cent claimed by industry. Deploying CCS in the power sector could also make electricity at least twice as costly as renewable energy backed by storage.
Japan and South Korea have provided extensive financial and policy support to CCS, while Australia and Southeast Asian countries are positioning themselves as carbon storage hubs. China has begun supporting new projects under its 2023 Plan for Green and Low-Carbon Technology Demonstration.
“We find a strong possibility that Asian countries could increase their support for CCS through to 2050, risking a significant lock-in of unabated fossil fuels and stranded asset costs, let alone risks to the world achieving the Paris Agreement 1.5 degrees Celsius warming limit,” said James Bowen, lead author of the report.
“Asia is at a crossroads: while these countries haven’t yet gone down a high CCS route, many have tailored their CCS policies to protect their fossil fuel industry, especially in Japan, South Korea and Australia. This is a very risky strategy, not only to the Paris Agreement, but to these economies themselves,” Climate Analytics CEO Bill Hare said.
The report said a “deliberate low-CCS pathway” by prioritising renewable energy expansion, electrification and efficiency would be a more cost-effective and climate-aligned option for the region.
