Stock market is likely to open lower on Monday as rising tensions in the Middle East weigh on global sentiment. Iran is now at the centre of a war involving the US and Israel. Fresh strikes over the weekend have pushed crude oil prices sharply higher and led investors to move towards safer assets.
Early signals from Gift Nifty suggest a weak start. Gift Nifty futures were trading at 25,60 points at 8:30 am. This indicates that the benchmark Nifty 50 may open below Friday’s close of 25,178.65.
Gaurav Udani, Founder – ThinCredBlu Securities, said, “Gift Nifty is indicating a negative start, with Nifty likely to open near 25,100, down close to 100 points. The index continues to trade within a downward-sloping channel, reflecting persistent selling pressure in recent sessions.”
He added, “The 25,100 level is now a critical lower boundary. A sustained move below this zone could trigger a technical sell-off toward the 24,700 levels. On the upside, resistance is placed at 25,350–25,400, while immediate support lies in the 25,100–24,950 band.”
Referring to the global situation, he said, “Adding to the cautious tone is the ongoing geopolitical tension, with war-related developments keeping global risk sentiment fragile. Such environments tend to amplify volatility and reduce follow-through on intraday recoveries. Until the index stabilises above resistance or reclaims key levels, traders should remain defensive, expect sharp swings in both directions, and maintain strict stop-losses in their positions.”
Oil prices have jumped more than 7% on Monday to their highest level in months. Brent crude futures rose to around $82.40 a barrel, the highest in 14 months. The surge came after US-Israeli strikes on Iran over the weekend reportedly killed Tehran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The news has increased uncertainty for the global economy.
Tehran has said it has closed navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Nearly 20% of global oil flows through this route. More than 40% of India’s crude oil imports pass through this stretch. Governments and oil refiners are now reviewing their oil stock levels.
Other Asian markets also opened 1.1% lower, reflecting a broader risk-off mood across the region.
On Friday, Dalal Street ended lower, marking the third straight monthly loss for the benchmark indices. IT stocks were among the biggest drags. The sector recorded its worst monthly performance since September 2008 in February. Concerns have grown that artificial intelligence may affect earnings growth in the technology sector.
Dr Ravi Singh, Chief Research Officer from Master Capital Services Ltd, said, “Geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran continued to unsettle global markets, prompting cautious positioning. Additionally, Anthropic’s latest AI plugin releases triggered a sharp selloff in the domestic IT sector, as investors reassessed the competitive landscape and near-term earnings outlook for technology companies.”
Institutional data shows mixed trends. On a month-till-date basis, foreign institutional investors bought shares worth Rs 51,307.56 crore and sold shares worth Rs 62,309.91 crore, resulting in a net outflow of Rs 11,002.35 crore.
In contrast, domestic institutional investors bought shares worth Rs 44,110.44 crore and sold shares worth Rs 26,786.06 crore, leading to a net inflow of Rs 17,324.38 crore.
On February 27, 2026, foreign institutional investors purchased shares worth Rs 36,699.66 crore and sold Rs 44,236.02 crore, resulting in a net outflow of Rs 7,536.36 crore. On the same day, domestic institutional investors bought Rs 24,867.72 crore and sold Rs 12,574.91 crore, leading to a net inflow of Rs 12,292.81 crore.
On February 26, 2026, foreign institutional investors bought Rs 14,607.90 crore and sold Rs 18,073.89 crore, leading to a net outflow of Rs 3,465.99 crore. Domestic institutional investors on that day purchased Rs 19,242.72 crore and sold Rs 14,211.15 crore, resulting in a net inflow of Rs 5,031.57 crore.
The data shows that while foreign investors have been net sellers, domestic institutions have continued to support the market with steady buying.
With rising oil prices, global uncertainty and technical weakness in the indices, traders will closely watch early trade. The focus will remain on crude prices, global cues and further developments in the Middle East conflict.
