India is heading towards a major public health emergency, with millions of children projected to develop obesity-linked chronic diseases by 2040, even as the country remains off-track to meet global targets to halt the rise in childhood obesity.
A new report by the World Obesity Federation warns that without urgent policy interventions — including sugar taxes and stricter curbs on junk food marketing — the country could see 20 million children living with obesity and over 120 million showing early signs of hypertension and cardiovascular disease within the next 15 years.
Releasing the World Obesity Atlas 2026 ahead of World Obesity Day on March 4, the Federation projected that by 2040, 20 million children in India will be living with obesity, while a staggering 56 million will be living with overweight or obesity.
The health consequences are expected to be severe. At least 120 million or 12 crore school-age children are projected to show early signs of chronic diseases such as hypertension and cardiovascular disease due to excess weight.
The latest data show that in 2025 alone, 14.9 million children aged 5–9 years and over 26.4 million adolescents aged 10–19 years in India were overweight or obese.
India ranks among the countries with the largest number of affected children globally.
By the end of 2025, China, India and the United States each had more than 10 million children living with obesity. India recorded 41 million school-age children with high body mass index (BMI), including 14 million living specifically with obesity.
ALARMING 2040 PROJECTIONS
Looking ahead, the health burden is expected to intensify. Between 2025 and 2040, the number of Indian children aged 5–19 years with disease indicators linked to high BMI is projected to rise sharply.
Cases of BMI-attributed hypertension are forecast to increase from 2.99 million to 4.21 million. Hyperglycaemia cases may rise from 1.39 million to 1.91 million. High triglycerides, an early marker of cardiovascular disease, are expected to climb from 4.39 million to 6.07 million.
Meanwhile, metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), previously known as non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, could surge from 8.39 million to 11.88 million cases among children.
Globally, too, the Atlas paints an equally troubling picture. More than one in five children aged 5–19 years — 20.7 per cent — were living with overweight or obesity in 2025, up from 14.6 per cent in 2010.
By 2040, the federation predicts that 507 million children worldwide will be overweight or obese. Over 57 million are expected to show early signs of cardiovascular disease, and more than 43 million may develop hypertension.
The Federation stressed that prevention efforts remain inadequate across much of the world. While obesity was once considered a problem confined largely to high-income countries, the fastest increases are now being recorded in low- and middle-income nations.
Notably, the number of school-age children living with obesity globally now exceeds those who are underweight.
CALL FOR POLICY ACTION
In India, several preventable risk factors are contributing to the rising trend. Nearly 74 per cent of adolescents aged 11–17 do not meet recommended physical activity levels.
Only 35.5 per cent of school-age children receive school meals. About 32.6 per cent of infants aged 1–5 months experience suboptimal breastfeeding.
Among women aged 15–49 years, 13.4 per cent are living with a high BMI and 4.2 per cent have Type 2 diabetes, compounding intergenerational risks.
Although children aged 6–10 years consume relatively modest amounts of sugary drinks on average, experts warn that dietary transitions, urban lifestyles, and aggressive marketing of unhealthy foods are driving long-term risk.
Johanna Ralston, chief executive of the Federation, said the steady increase in childhood obesity reflects a global failure to treat it as a serious disease.
“Governments urgently need to step up prevention and management efforts for children living with overweight and obesity, and ensure that they receive the care they need,” she said.
She called for proven measures such as taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages, restrictions on marketing unhealthy foods to children — including on digital platforms — implementation of global physical activity recommendations, protection of breastfeeding, healthier school food standards, and integrating obesity prevention and care into primary healthcare systems.
“There is no reason to hesitate in bringing these about,” Ralston said, warning that inaction would condemn a generation to chronic and potentially fatal non-communicable diseases.
With just four years until 2030, public health experts say India and other countries must move swiftly from projections to policy implementation if they are to avert a looming epidemic that threatens both the health system and the economic future of the next generation.
