RN senses a breakthrough as France’s political crisis deepens

French far right figure Marine Le Pen, who narrowly missed securing a majority in last year’s snap legislative elections, said the setback was only temporary. Fifteen months on, political deadlock and instability have gripped France, and Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) sees an opening as President Emmanuel Macron maneuvers to avoid fresh polls.

The RN’s exclusion from mainstream political deals has allowed it to benefit from public frustration. A new OpinionWay survey for CNEWS shows 35% of voters would back RN in potential parliamentary election, ten points ahead of a united left, if such an alliance reformed. While similar numbers were recorded before the 2024 vote, RN leaders believe shifting alliances could tip the balance in their favor. Centrist conservative cooperation is weakening, and the leftist partnership with Socialists and France Unbowed has collapsed.

Macron is set to appoint a new prime minister, but analysts warn parliament could be dissolved within weeks, a move Le Pen has long demanded. She has stated RN will only pursue the premiership if it comes close to a majority, in which case they could court conservative Republican lawmakers. The party has carefully assembled its candidate roster to avoid scandals linked to antisemitism or racism that hurt them last year.

Le Pen’s future remains uncertain due to a five year political plan for an embezzlement conviction, with an appeal scheduled for January. If barred from the 2027 presidential race, she plans for party president Jordan Bardella to run. Bardella’s rising popularity, 35% in a recent Toluna poll, now edges Le Pen’s 34%. His polished image and working class appeal have broadened RN’s base beyond its older conservative roots.

If in power, Bardella promises stricter border controls, a halt to regularizing undocumented migrants, and tougher prison sentences, policies aimed at cementing RN as a viable governing force amid France’s ongoing political crisis.