Despite nominations and the foreign policy achievements he has claimed credit for, longtime Nobel watchers believe Trump’s chances remain low for many reasons.
US President Donald Trump has aggressively lobbied for the Nobel Peace Prize, with his cabinet and the White House joining in the appeal. Now, just hours before the announcement, many are watching closely to see who the next laureate will be.
Despite his high-profile nominations and the foreign policy achievements he has claimed credit for, longtime Nobel watchers believe Trump’s chances remain low, according to a report by the Associated Press.
Observers note that the Nobel Committee typically focuses on lasting peace, the promotion of international fraternity, and the work of institutions that strengthen those goals. Trump’s disregard for multilateral institutions and his stance on climate change might also work against him.
Still, Trump has repeatedly sought the Nobel since his first term. He has been nominated several times, both from within the United States and by politicians abroad since 2018.
His most recent nomination came in December from US Representative Claudia Tenney, a Republican from New York, who cited his role in brokering the 2020 Abraham Accords, which normalized ties between Israel and several Arab nations.
Nominations submitted this year by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the Pakistani government came after the February 1 deadline for the 2025 award.
Since the start of his second term, Trump has lobbied for the Nobel more aggressively. Last month, he told UN delegates, “Everyone says that I should get the Nobel Peace Prize.” However, individuals cannot nominate themselves.
The Norwegian Nobel Committee has clarified that any potential Israel-Gaza peace agreement will not affect the selection of the 2025 Peace Prize, as nominations closed on January 31, shortly after Trump’s return to the White House.
Trump has repeatedly said he “deserves” the prize and claims to have “ended seven wars.” He recently hinted at the possibility of ending an eighth if Israel and Hamas agree to his peace plan to conclude the ongoing conflict.
“Nobody’s ever done that,” he told military leaders at Marine Corps Base Quantico in Virginia. “Will you get the Nobel Prize? Absolutely not. They’ll give it to some guy who didn’t do a damn thing.”
Following the first phase of the Israel-Hamas peace plan, fighting has paused and hostages held by Hamas are being exchanged for Palestinian prisoners.
Early Thursday morning, families of hostages and others gathered in Tel Aviv’s Hostages Square, chanting “Nobel Prize to Trump.”
But Nobel veterans say the committee values sustained, multilateral efforts over quick diplomatic wins.
Theo Zenou, a historian and research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society, told AP that Trump’s efforts have not yet proven lasting. “There’s a huge difference between getting fighting to stop in the short term and resolving the root causes of the conflict,” Zenou said.
“I don’t think they would award the most prestigious prize in the world to someone who does not believe in climate change,” he added. “When you look at previous winners who have been bridge-builders and embodied international cooperation and reconciliation—these are not words we associate with Donald Trump.”
Trump’s outspoken push for the prize might also backfire. The committee would not want to be seen as bowing to political pressure, said Nina Græger, director of the Peace Research Institute Oslo.
Trump’s Nobel hopes remain “a long shot,” she said. “His rhetoric does not point in a peaceful direction.”
