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Friday, January 16, 2026

Canada’s $50 Billion Tariff Loss Sparks Energy Policy Shift

Key Takeaways

  • US tariffs expected to cost Canada $50 billion, or $1,300 per Canadian
  • New energy deal scraps emissions cap, boosts carbon pricing and pipeline development
  • Canada imposes retaliatory 25% tariffs on US steel products

Prime Minister Mark Carney has warned that US tariffs will wipe $50 billion from Canada’s economy, equivalent to $1,300 for every Canadian. The economic impact comes as Canada shifts its energy policy to counter trade uncertainty with the United States.

New Energy Agreement with Alberta

Carney signed an agreement with Alberta’s premier that rolls back certain climate regulations to spur energy investment. The deal scraps a planned emissions cap on oil and gas and drops clean electricity rules. In exchange, Alberta will strengthen industrial carbon pricing and support carbon capture technology.

The Prime Minister emphasized the need to diversify from the US market, which currently takes 90% of Canada’s oil exports. “We must build projects that spur growth and reduce US reliance,” Carney stated at an industry event in Calgary.

Political Fallout and Climate Commitments

The energy deal has created tensions within Carney’s minority government. Steven Guilbeault, former environment minister under Justin Trudeau, resigned from cabinet over concerns about Canada’s climate plan being dismantled.

Despite relaxing environmental restrictions, Carney reaffirmed Canada’s commitment to net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. The policy shift has been hailed by oil industry leaders but criticized by environmental groups.

Retaliatory Tariffs on US Goods

In a tacit acknowledgment that a US trade deal is unlikely, Carney introduced measures to protect steel and lumber industries affected by US tariffs. Canada will impose a 25% tariff on steel products including prefabricated buildings, wire, and fasteners.

Officials estimate approximately 40% of these affected products originate from the United States. The measures also include reducing foreign steel imports and lowering transportation costs for lumber and steel by rail.

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