Giving Nvidia’s Blackwell Chip to China Would Slash US AI Advantage, Experts Say

President Trump’s suggestion that he may allow Nvidia to export its advanced Blackwell AI chips to China could severely undermine America’s artificial intelligence leadership, according to security experts and policy analysts.

A new analysis reveals that exporting even downgraded versions of Nvidia’s state-of-the-art chip would dramatically shrink the US technological edge that current export controls were designed to protect.

Export Controls at Risk

The US chip export restrictions, implemented in 2022, aimed to prevent Beijing’s military from benefiting from American technology and slow China’s AI development. Experts warn that allowing Blackwell chip exports would effectively spell the end of this regulatory framework.

“If we decide to export B30As, it would dramatically shrink the U.S.’s main advantage it currently has over China in AI,” said Tim Fist, co-author of the recent analysis examining the impact of exporting the B30A chip – a downgraded version of Nvidia’s Blackwell processor.

Trump-Xi Chip Negotiations

President Trump indicated Wednesday he may discuss Nvidia’s “super-duper” Blackwell chip with Chinese President Xi Jinping during their Thursday meeting. This echoes his August comments suggesting he might permit scaled-down versions of Nvidia’s top chip to China.

However, Fist notes the B30A represents the same core technology in different packaging, meaning China could purchase multiple units to achieve similar computing power at comparable costs.

Stark Scenarios Revealed

The analysis examined nine potential export scenarios with concerning findings:

• Best case: With no powerful chip exports, US maintains 30x AI computing power advantage over China
• Worst case: Allowing B30A exports could see China surpass US in AI computing power by 2026
• Median scenario: Even limited exports reduce US advantage to just 4x China’s computing power

“If any meaningful quantities are allowed, it’s a huge change,” Fist emphasized. “It’s functionally ending the export control regime we have today.”

National Security Concerns

Chris McGuire, a former State Department technology expert, concurred with the assessment. “If this chip is allowed to go, there are effectively no AI chip export controls anymore,” he stated.

McGuire highlighted the fundamental risk: “The reason we have a big advantage on AI is because we have big advantages in computing power and chips. If we give that away, best case is, it’s like a tie. Worst case, we fall behind.”

He starkly characterized the potential outcome as “trading China our most advanced technology for soybean purchases.”

Nvidia declined to comment on the analysis or potential export negotiations.