As the world awaits the announcement of the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize on Friday (October 10), US President Donald J. Trump has once again become a focal point of speculation. Multiple nominations have been filed in his name this year, with proponents citing his administration’s role in brokering high-stakes agreements in the Middle East and the Caucasus. While Trump has long coveted the global recognition the prize confers, the Nobel Committee’s history of cautious selections raises questions about how realistic his chances truly are.
Trump’s role in peace deals and ceasefires
Trump’s most cited diplomatic achievement remains the Abraham Accords of 2020, which normalised relations between Israel and several Arab countries— a landmark moment in Middle Eastern diplomacy. But more recent developments under his current term have revived the conversation. Besides this, his administration also helped broker a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas after weeks of intense fighting in Gaza. The deal, which included a large-scale prisoner exchange and international monitoring, drew praise from European diplomats and global leaders for preventing a prolonged war.
Trump also played a behind-the-scenes role in ending the Armenia–Azerbaijan border conflict, with US envoys mediating a peace framework in tandem with the European Union. In both cases, the White House framed these agreements as evidence of Trump’s unconventional but effective diplomacy — the kind of decisive, transactional approach that supporters argue has produced results where prolonged negotiations failed.
Several foreign lawmakers and political figures, including Malta’s foreign minister and a Norwegian parliamentarian, publicly announced they had submitted Trump’s name for the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize. Though the Nobel Committee does not publish its nomination list for 50 years, nominators often go public to build political momentum and shape the narrative around a candidate’s achievements. For Trump, who has repeatedly expressed frustration that he did not win the prize during his previous term, these announcements serve both a symbolic and strategic purpose.
What the Nobel Committee looks for?
Yet nominations are only the first step in a lengthy and highly confidential selection process. The Nobel Peace Prize is guided by Alfred Nobel’s will, which calls for honouring those who have done “the most or the best work for fraternity between countries, for the abolition or reduction of standing armies and for the holding and promotion of peace congresses.” Over the years, the Norwegian Nobel Committee has interpreted these criteria with caution, often favouring diplomats, activists, or organisations that have fostered sustained peace or humanitarian progress over time.
Trump’s polarising global image and his deeply divisive domestic standing complicate the picture. While his supporters highlight his role in reshaping alliances and reducing direct US military entanglements, critics argue that his diplomatic moves are transactional, short-term, and lacking multilateral backing — elements the Nobel Committee traditionally values. Historically, the Committee has avoided awarding sitting leaders embroiled in intense political controversies, preferring to wait until their legacies can be judged in full.
Another hurdle is timing. Nobel nominations must be submitted by January 31 each year. Some of Trump’s recent nominations came after that deadline, which means they might only count for the 2026 prize cycle. Even if his achievements are considered this year, he faces stiff competition. With 338 candidates nominated for the 2025 prize, Trump’s path is narrow. Nonetheless, the possibility cannot be dismissed entirely. If the Nobel Committee chooses to make a bold statement recognising unconventional diplomacy and concrete ceasefire deals, Trump could be a surprise pick. But if past patterns are any indication, the Committee is more likely to favour long-term peace builders over polarising political figures still in office.
For now, Trump’s Nobel ambitions remain a blend of diplomatic milestones and political theater. The answer will come from Oslo on Friday (October 10) — but the debate over whether Donald Trump deserves the world’s most symbolic peace prize is already raging far beyond Norway’s borders.
Disclaimer: The views of the writer do not represent the views of WION or ZMCL. Nor does WION or ZMCL endorse the views of the writer.
