Apple CEO Tim Cook walked out of a closed-door intelligence briefing in mid-2023 deeply shaken. According to a report by The New York Times, Cook later told US officials that he had been sleeping “with one eye open” after being warned that China could launch a military move against Taiwan by 2027, a scenario that could severely disrupt Apple’s global supply chain.
The previously unreported briefing took place in July 2023 inside a secure room in Silicon Valley, at a time when US intelligence agencies were growing increasingly uneasy about China’s intentions toward Taiwan. For Apple, the stakes could not be higher. Taiwan is home to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), the company that manufactures nearly all of Apple’s custom-designed chips used across iPhones, iPads and Macs.
The meeting was arranged after US officials, including Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, grew frustrated with how slowly major tech firms were moving away from Taiwan-based chip production. Raimondo reportedly asked Central Intelligence Agency Director William J. Burns and Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines to personally brief top executives on the latest intelligence assessments around China and Taiwan.
Alongside Cook, the briefing was attended by Jensen Huang of Nvidia and Lisa Su of Advanced Micro Devices, while Cristiano Amon of Qualcomm joined virtually. During the session, US intelligence leaders reportedly laid out how China’s rising military spending and preparedness could point to a move on Taiwan around 2027.
What is happening with Taiwan, Apple and China?
China claims Taiwan as its own territory and has, in recent years, carried out large-scale military drills around the island. Some of these exercises have simulated a full blockade, heightening concerns in Washington that Beijing may be testing invasion scenarios rather than merely sending political signals.
Concerns about Taiwan are not new. US and UK security agencies had earlier warned that the muted global reaction to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could embolden China. By 2023, those fears appeared serious enough for intelligence officials to speak directly to Silicon Valley’s most powerful decision-makers.
For Apple and the tech industry in general, Taiwan’s importance goes far beyond geopolitics. TSMC produces roughly 90 per cent of the world’s most advanced semiconductors. US officials have warned that any disruption to Taiwan’s chip output could trigger an economic shock of historic scale. One estimate cited by US authorities suggested a potential 11 per cent hit to US GDP, with global losses crossing $10 trillion if access to Taiwanese chips were cut off.
Despite these warnings, US tech companies were initially reluctant to move large portions of chip production to the US. The reasons were largely practical. Chips made domestically can cost more than 25 per cent extra, and early US-based facilities were said to lag behind Taiwan’s most advanced manufacturing technology by at least one generation.
Cook’s reaction after the briefing suggests how seriously Apple took the intelligence assessment. Not long after, Apple committed $100 billion towards supporting chip manufacturing in the US. The company also began exploring domestic production options more actively, including evaluating Intel’s US-based fabrication capabilities.
TSMC, meanwhile, has announced plans to invest around $165 billion in the US, with land secured for at least five new fabrication plants in Phoenix, Arizona. These facilities are intended to reduce America’s dependence on overseas chip supplies, though they are not expected to immediately match the sophistication of TSMC’s operations in Taiwan.
