Apple Set to Overtake Samsung as World’s Top Smartphone Brand in 2025
Apple is poised to become the world’s leading smartphone company for the first time since 2011, with projected shipments reaching a 19.4% global market share in 2025, according to Counterpoint Research. Samsung, despite an expected 4.6% growth, will drop to second place with an 18.7% share, ending its over-a-decade-long reign.
Key Takeaways
- Apple to capture 19.4% global smartphone market share in 2025.
- Samsung falls to second place after more than a decade at the top.
- Strong iPhone 17 series launch and post-COVID upgrade cycle drive Apple’s growth.
Strong iPhone Performance and New Models
iPhone shipments exceeded expectations in Q3 2025, posting a solid 9% year-on-year growth. The launch of the iPhone 17 series marked a significant shift in Apple’s lineup, with the new iPhone Air replacing the Plus model and featuring adjustments in memory configurations and pricing tiers.
Post-COVID Upgrade Cycle Fuels Growth
Global smartphone shipments are expected to grow 3.3% in 2025. Senior analyst Yang Wang explained: “Beyond the highly positive market reception for the iPhone 17 series, the key driver behind the upgraded shipment outlook lies in the replacement cycle reaching its inflection point. Consumers who purchased smartphones during the COVID-19 boom are now entering their upgrade phase.”
Furthermore, 358 million second-hand iPhones were sold between 2023 and Q2 2025, creating a substantial potential upgrade base that should sustain iPhone shipment growth in coming quarters.
Strong US Sales and Favorable Market Conditions
According to Counterpoint’s latest data, US sales of the iPhone 17 series, including the iPhone Air, were 12% higher in the first four weeks than the iPhone 16 series (excluding iPhone 16e). Apple also benefited from lower-than-expected tariff impacts and a truce in the US-China trade war.
These factors helped Apple’s supply chain and manufacturing diversification efforts while boosting demand in key emerging markets. The report noted: “Appreciating domestic currencies versus the US dollar and a resilient economic outlook boosted consumer confidence. With these structural tailwinds, Apple is well-positioned to surpass Samsung in annual shipments in 2025.”
Samsung is still expected to achieve 5% shipment growth in 2025, supported by a resilient supply chain that has absorbed much of the tariff impact.
