Apple Set to Dethrone Samsung as World’s Top Smartphone Maker
Apple is on track to surpass Samsung and become the world’s largest smartphone maker in 2025 for the first time since 2011, according to Counterpoint Research. This historic shift is driven by the blockbuster success of the iPhone 17 series and a massive wave of consumer upgrades.
Key Takeaways
- Apple projected to claim 19.4% global market share in 2025
- iPhone shipments expected to grow 10%, outpacing Samsung’s 4.6%
- Strong sales in both US and Chinese markets driving the surge
iPhone 17 Series Drives Record Growth
The iPhone 17 lineup, launched in September, has become a major hit globally. The series, particularly the ultra-thin iPhone Air, generated unprecedented demand with long queues at stores. This led to double-digit year-over-year sales growth in both the United States and China.
Beyond the new models, Apple is benefiting from favorable market conditions including cooling US-China trade tensions and a depreciating dollar that makes iPhones more affordable in emerging markets.
Replacement Cycle Hits Inflection Point
Counterpoint analyst Yang Wang explained the driving factors: “Beyond the highly positive market reception for the iPhone 17 series, the key driver behind the upgraded shipment outlook lies in the replacement cycle reaching its inflection point.”
The analyst highlighted that consumers who purchased smartphones during the COVID-19 boom are now entering their upgrade phase. Additionally, the 358 million secondhand iPhones sold between 2023 and Q2 2025 represent a significant future upgrade pool.
What’s Next for Apple?
Wang remains optimistic about Apple’s long-term dominance, forecasting the company will maintain the top position through 2029. The upcoming 2026 debut of a foldable iPhone and budget-friendly iPhone 17e is expected to sustain this growth momentum.
Apple confirmed that sales are growing faster than anticipated, with the holiday quarter approaching a record $140 billion in revenue. The company is also planning a major iPhone design revamp for 2027, signaling continued innovation in the pipeline.
