In the last three months, the Indian government has done four major defence deals, which even attracted the attention of the US administration. In the India-Germany submarine deal, New Delhi sealed a maritime defence and security deal in December 2025, and both countries announced plans to build six submarines in India under Project 75I. In the India-EU deal at the end of January, India signed a maritime defence security deal, marking an important shift in the India-EU diplomatic ties, as this security deal ran alongside a Free Trade Deal.
Similarly, in the India-France Rafale deal, India signed a defence deal with the French government to order 114 Rafale fighter jets. However, the catch in this deal was the development of 96 of the 114 Rafale fighter jets in India. Now, at the end of February 2026, New Delhi inked an India-Israel defence deal to strengthen its air and missile defence systems.
Interestingly, in all these defence deals, New Delhi has managed to clinch technology transfer agreements with the opposing nations, which signal India’s bid for self-reliance in air and maritime defence. After this series of defence deals involving India, the Chinese government has yet to react, while Pakistan has already started making a brouhaha over it.
According to experts, India’s growing defence ties with Israel, the European Union, Germany, and France will worry China and Pakistan. However, they maintained that such defence and security agreements would gradually shift the balance of power in India’s favour in South Asia and the Indo-Pacific region.
Defence diplomacy
Speaking on India-Israel defence deal, Abhinav Tiwari, Research Analyst at Bonanza, said, “With Israel, India is strengthening an already strong defence partnership that includes missiles, air defence systems, drones, surveillance tools, and possible cooperation on advanced technologies. These improve India’s ability to detect threats early and respond quickly.”
Pointing to India’s interest in the South Asia and Indo-Pacific regions, the Bonanza expert said that with the EU, India has entered broader security and defence cooperation covering counter-terrorism, maritime security, cyber security, and defence manufacturing. This also sends a political message that Europe is more aligned with India on issues like cross-border terrorism.
“France is already a major defence partner through fighter jets and submarines, while Germany and other European countries see India as an important partner in the Indo-Pacific and as a counterbalance to China,” said Abhinav Tiwari of Bonanza.
Impact on China, Pakistan
Whether these defence deals would rattle India’s arch rivals, China and Pakistan’s ambitions in the South Asia and Indo-Pacific region, Ross Maxwell, Global Strategy Operations Lead, VT Markets, said, “India’s expanding defence partnerships would complicate Beijing’s regional military ambitions as it improves India’s access to advanced systems and equipment. For Pakistan, due to its historical and recent direct conflicts with India, the psychological and fiscal impact is more relevant.”
Ross said that Pakistan’s defence policies are focused on India and constrained by debt, so visible Indian advancements can trigger pressure to maintain deterrence, often through cheaper tools such as missiles, drones, and tactical nuclear forces rather than matching conventional spending.
“Pakistan feels pressured because India is gaining better weapons and stronger diplomatic support, making risky actions more difficult. China is concerned that India’s growing capabilities reduce its leverage, but it is more likely to respond by supporting Pakistan than by directly confronting India. Overall, these deals increase deterrence and long-term rivalry, not immediate conflict,” Abhinav Tiwari of Bonanza said.
Shifting reliance on Russia
Highlighting New Delhi’s shift away from long-term reliance on Moscow to strengthen India’s defence and security, Ross Maxwell said, “India’s diversification away from Russian dependence also signals long-term technological depth, which reduces Pakistan’s expectation that India will face supply issues in times of crises.”
The VT Markets expert said that China will monitor closely, especially in aerospace and electronic warfare, but is more likely to respond with capability adjustments along the border and in the Indian Ocean rather than with major changes to its defence budget.
Whether these deals would spur defence spending in South East Asia and the Indo-Pacific region, Ross Maxwell said, “These deals certainly strengthen India, and they put strain on Pakistan’s resources whilst adding complexity to China’s strategies, but they do not fundamentally alter regional spending strategies.”
What these deals mean for the US
Avinash Gorakshkar, a SEBI-registered fundamental analyst, believes India’s defence system requires diversification because it was heavily dependent on Russian support. This was because when we do a defence deal with Russia, they also transfer the technology, whereas with NATO countries, they only send the weapon. As Germany, France, and most of the EU members belong to NATO and have agreed to transfer technology, it seems India has scored over the US in the recent Greenland crisis.
“For containing Pakistan’s aggression, India’s current defence system is enough. But to deter any Chinese aggression, India needs a more advanced defence system, and for that, it needs US support. Before the Greenland crisis, the US nod was important to EU members for transferring defence technologies to non-NATO states. However, after the emergence of the Greenland crisis, European countries, especially the EU, have started to take independent decisions, and this series of defence co-operation agreements with India signals a possible crack and a trust deficit against the US,” said Avinash Gorakshkar.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
