An asteroid is speeding toward Earth, and although scientists say it will pass at a safe distance, calculations suggest a very small possibility of it striking the Moon.
To stay prepared, Nasa’s James Webb Space Telescope is closely monitoring the object.
Dubbed 2024 YR4, the observations will help scientists refine its path, improve prediction models, and better understand the asteroid’s trajectory as it moves through space.
WHAT IS THE ASTEROID THAT IS HEADING TOWARDS THE MOON?
In late December 2024, astronomers in Chile spotted 2024 YR4.
At first, it sparked mild concern because its path suggested a tiny chance of hitting Earth on December 22, 2032. But after months of careful tracking with telescopes worldwide, scientists confirmed it poses no danger to our planet at all.
The latest calculations, however, provided an unexpected possibility.
This 53 to 67 metre asteroid has a slim, 4.1 per cent, chance of striking the Moon on the same date in 2032.
That’s roughly one in 24 odds, low enough that no one is losing sleep, but high enough to excite scientists.
WHAT WILL JAMES WEBB TELESCOPE DO?
To sharpen predictions, Nasa’s James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), the most powerful infrared observatory ever built, is stepping in.
On February 17 and again on February 26, 2026, JWST will point its golden mirrors and sensitive instruments at the faint, distant asteroid.
These observations, including detailed spectroscopy, will measure its exact position and path.
Spectroscopy is the scientific study of how matter interacts with, absorbs, or emits electromagnetic radiation. It is used to learn more about a material’s composition and structure.
Through this process, JWST will provide insights far more precisely than ground telescopes can manage now, as the rock is too far away for most Earth-based instruments.
Every observation made by the JWST will help improve our ability to track thousands of near-Earth objects and, if needed one day, nudge aside a truly dangerous one.
After these JWST snapshots, experts will update the odds, and we’ll know a little more about our neighbourhood in space.
WHAT WILL HAPPEN IF THE ASTEROID HITS MOON?
A lunar impact would be a rare natural experiment.
The crash could carve a crater up to two kilometres wide, send up a bright flash visible from Earth, and spray rocky debris into space.
Some fragments might even reach our atmosphere as a short-lived meteor shower.
Satellites will be tracking the development, and spacecraft on the surface could get significant seismic readings, while the composition of the debris material could reveal the asteroid’s properties.
Think of it as a free sample from deep space delivered right to our cosmic backyard.
Whether the asteroid misses or makes a spectacular lunar splash in 2032, humanity is watching with the help of one of its best creations.
