As the Rashtriya Swatantra Party (RSP) inches towards a two-thirds majority, there is a tectonic shift in the political landscape of Nepal. As per trends, the RSP is likely to obtain about 125 seats out of a total of 165 under the first-past-the-post system in parliament. If these trends are extrapolated to the 110 seats under proportional representation, the RSP is headed for a two-thirds majority. The three major political forces that have dominated Nepali politics for several decades — the Nepali Congress, the Communist Party of Nepal (UML) and the Maoists — have experienced a significant reduction in strength. For the RSP, established just four years ago by a popular former TV anchor, Rabi Lamichhane, this is a remarkable success story. The party has also benefited enormously from its young, charismatic prime ministerial candidate, Balendra Shah, an engineer and rapper, a former mayor of Kathmandu, a rank “outsider” in the corridors of Nepalese power.
The general elections took place in the aftermath of the Gen Z uprising of September 8-9, 2025, a landmark event that encapsulated the frustrations and despair of the youth with the existing political leadership, corruption and mis-governance. For a country with a median age of 25, with almost a third of the population moving abroad in search of livelihoods, the youth were fed up with an older generation of leaders that had cartelised Nepali politics, taking turns to rule. Disconnected with the aspirations of the youth and high-handed in its behaviour — the instant cause for the protests was the banning of several popular social media apps by the then Oli government — the old style of politics has been roundly rejected in this election.
For the first time, this election was not about identity politics along the hill-plains/Pahadi-Madhesi socio-political fault lines in Nepal. Neither was it about ideology or political “isms”; nor about republic versus monarchy and Hindu versus secular. From India’s perspective, it is after many years that India or anti-Indian nationalism was not an electoral issue, unlike in the past when CPN (UML) leader KP Sharma Oli sailed to victory on the back of anti-India rhetoric. Rather, this was an election for change, to give newer, more educated, progressive, tech-savvy and younger leaders a chance to lead the country on the path of economic prosperity. In the person of Balendra Shah, who is the son of a Madhesi father and whose karmabhumi is Kathmandu, the RSP found a leader who bridges the Pahad-Madhes divide and has captured the imagination of the entire country. Of course, this is not to suggest that political fault lines have been erased, but their salience has diminished in this election.
The immediate task for the RSP is to form a government. They will then need to move swiftly on some of the core demands of the Gen Z protests, including bringing those guilty of the killings of innocent youth to book. Demands for a fresh look at certain aspects of the 2015 Constitution would need to be considered carefully, given that the document represented a compromise between opposing interests in what is a very diverse society. And in the short- to medium-term, they will need to announce economic policies that would boost the economy, already under pressure.
That the Communist forces have fared poorly is, from India’s perspective, welcome news. Traditionally, they, along with the royalists, have been in the vanguard of anti-India rhetoric. India was also an early supporter of the interim government of former chief justice Sushila Karki, which, despite initial opposition from some of the traditional parties, has done a splendid job of organising free and fair elections. India offered substantial logistical support for the elections.
Unlike the traditional parties, the RSP is not as well known to India and our political class. Some of the new and younger leaders, barring a few, including Balendra Shah, have not received their education in India but in some western countries. They are technocratic leaders, many of whom have excelled in their respective fields before plunging into the political domain. We will be dealing with a leadership that is more pragmatic and less ideological. As new rulers, they will want to prove themselves and demonstrate tangibly that they are different from and better than their predecessors in meeting the aspirations of the people, especially the youth. The focus will hopefully be more on developmental partnership and cooperation and less on political issues that have divided the two countries in the past.
For China, the emergence of new forces is a setback to its efforts to develop a strong and united Communist force in Nepal. There could also be a review of some of the vanity projects endorsed by previous governments under the Belt and Road Initiative. Nevertheless, the new government would be careful to ensure that its relations with China remain on an even keel. The US will be happy at the turn of events in Nepal since some of the leaders of the RSP have studied or worked in the US. The US-sponsored Millennium Change Corporation projects for road works and transmission lines would continue, though the gutting of USAID implies that US outreach in Nepal would be significantly impacted.
Recent developments in our neighbourhood require a fresh look at India’s policy approaches and templates. Dramatic shifts have taken place in the Maldives, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and now, in Nepal. These cannot be attributed only to the growing global turmoil; rather, they reflect the strength of a new generation of young people, impatient, aspirational, digitally connected, aware, and with greater agency. They want more democracy, a leadership that is responsive to their aspirations and greater opportunities. They contrast their own situation with other countries that are progressing rapidly and question their own leaders and political processes. India needs to make the youth a core focus of our neighbourhood first policy; and while our historical and cultural relationships are the bedrock, looking forward into the future, the most important pillar of our relationship must be economic.
Ranjit Rae, formerly India’s ambassador to Nepal, has edited the volume, Shared Bonds Strategic Interests, India-Nepal Relations in a Turbulent World. The views expressed are personal
