Russian and Iranian oil producers are reportedly offering deeper discounts to compete for the same limited pool of Chinese buyers after India pulled back from purchases.
Analysts say India’s imports from Russia could fall by 40 per cent from January levels, to around 600,000 barrels a day, according to a scenario from Rystad Energy, as reported by Bloomberg.
Much of the displaced crude is heading east, sparking a price war with Iranian suppliers, long favoured by China’s independent refiners, known as teapots. Russian Urals crude is reportedly selling at about $12 a barrel below ICE Brent, up from a $10 discount last month. Iranian Light crude is going for as much as $11 below the global benchmark, widening from $8–$9 in December, according to traders.
“The Chinese private refiners cannot take in much more as their capacity is likely maxed out,” said Jianan Sun, an analyst at Energy Aspects, noting that sanctioned barrels are building up in both onshore and offshore storage.
China’s teapots historically act as a pressure valve, absorbing barrels shunned by others, but their capacity is limited; they account for roughly a quarter of the country’s refining capacity and are also subject to government import quotas. Major state-owned refiners, meanwhile, have traditionally avoided Iranian crude and have recently largely stayed away from Russian barrels as well.
With China unable to fully absorb the displaced supply, unsold oil is piling up in Asian waters, leaving Russia and Iran scrambling.
The Kremlin has already cut output, depriving it of funds for its war in Ukraine, while Iran is trying to ship as much oil as possible amid fears of a potential US strike.
Data shows Russian oil deliveries to Chinese ports rose to 2.09 million barrels a day in the first 18 days of February, a roughly 20 per cent increase from January and nearly 50 per cent higher than December. By contrast, Iranian exports to China have fallen about 12 per cent from a year earlier, to roughly 1.2 million barrels a day, according to Kpler. The firm estimates nearly 48 million barrels of Iranian crude are now at sea, up from about 33 million in early February. Russian cargoes sitting in Asian waters total around 9.5 million barrels.
A potential US strike on Iran could disrupt exports if oil facilities are targeted or shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are blocked. Russian barrels carry a “relatively lower level of risk” for Chinese buyers compared with Iranian crude, said Lin Ye, vice president of oil markets at consultancy Rystad Energy, citing optimism over a potential ceasefire in Ukraine.
