Key Takeaways
- India’s sugar production projected to surge 16% to 343.5 lakh tons in 2025-26
- Government approves 15 lakh tonne sugar exports, removes 50% duty on molasses
- Maharashtra leads growth with record 130 lakh tons output, up 39% from previous year
India’s sugar production is set for a significant 16% jump in the 2025-26 season, reaching 343.5 lakh tons according to industry estimates. The government has approved exports of 15 lakh tonnes and removed export duties on molasses, signaling confidence in domestic supply.
Record Production Forecast
The Indian Sugar and Bio-Energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) released first advance estimates showing production rising from 296.1 lakh tons in 2024-25 to 343.5 lakh tons in the coming season. The projections are based on post-monsoon satellite imagery from October 2025 reviewed at ISMA’s November 4 executive committee meeting.
Improved cane acreage, favorable weather conditions, and higher yields across major sugar-producing states are driving the optimistic outlook. Total sugarcane acreage is estimated at 57.35 lakh hectares, marginally higher than the previous year’s 57.11 lakh hectares.
State-wise Performance
Maharashtra is poised for a remarkable turnaround, with production expected to hit a record 130 lakh tons – a 39% increase from 93.51 lakh tons last year. The state’s cane area has expanded to 14.71 lakh hectares, supported by abundant rainfall and high reservoir levels.
Karnataka shows a 6% increase in sugarcane acreage to 6.8 lakh hectares, with sugar production estimated at 63.5 lakh tons compared to 54.89 lakh tons previously.
“Similar to Maharashtra, favourable rainfall and adequate reservoir levels have enhanced crop conditions, leading to improved sugarcane yield and sugar recovery,” ISMA stated.
Uttar Pradesh, despite a 3% reduction in cane area to 22.57 lakh hectares, is expected to produce 103.2 lakh tons of sugar, slightly higher than the previous 101.01 lakh tons. Improved crop health and disease control measures are supporting yields.
Export Opportunities and Ethanol Diversion
After accounting for 34 lakh tons diverted to ethanol production, net sugar availability is projected at 309.5 lakh tons. With comfortable supply levels, India can export nearly 20 lakh tons this season.
The government has formally approved 15 lakh tonne exports and removed the 50% export duty on molasses. Union Minister Pralhad Joshi confirmed these measures in a November 7 letter to Karnataka Chief Minister Siddaramaiah, addressing concerns of sugarcane farmers.
ISMA emphasized that ongoing cane development initiatives and varietal replacement programs are expected to minimize disease incidence, particularly red rot, ensuring better crop health throughout the 2025-26 season.
