IMF Gives India’s Economic Data Second-Lowest Grade
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has assigned India’s national accounts statistics, including GDP and GVA figures, a ‘C’ grade in its annual review – the second-lowest rating possible. This indicates the data “have some shortcomings that somewhat hamper surveillance” according to the IMF assessment.
Key Takeaways
- India’s national accounts data receives ‘C’ grade for second consecutive year
- Outdated 2011-12 base year and methodology cited as key concerns
- Significant discrepancies between different GDP measurement approaches
- CPI inflation data gets better ‘B’ rating but faces similar outdated issues
- Government working on updated data series expected by 2026
What the ‘C’ Grade Means for India
The IMF acknowledged that India’s national accounts data meet basic frequency and timeliness requirements but noted “some methodological weaknesses somewhat hamper surveillance.” Across all data categories combined, India received an overall ‘B’ grade, with A, B, C, and D representing the four possible ratings.
Specific Data Quality Concerns
The IMF highlighted several critical issues with India’s economic data:
- Outdated baseline: Data still uses 2011-12 base year and wholesale price indices for deflators
- Measurement discrepancies: “Sizeable discrepancies” between production and expenditure approaches to GDP calculation
- Technical limitations: Lack of seasonally adjusted data and need for improved statistical techniques
- Granularity issues: Insufficient breakdown of investment data and quarterly estimates
The IMF specifically noted that periodic discrepancies between measurement approaches “may indicate the need to enhance the coverage of the expenditure approach data and the informal sector.”
Inflation Data Assessment
India’s Consumer Price Index received a better ‘B’ rating, meaning the data “have some shortcomings but are broadly adequate for surveillance.” However, the IMF pointed to the same outdated 2011-12 base year, item basket, and weights, noting this “implies that the CPI basket likely fails to accurately represent current spending habits.”
Government Response and Outlook
The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation is currently working on updating both GDP and CPI base years and methodology. The new data series are expected to be released in early or mid-2026, which could address many of the IMF’s concerns.
Other government data categories – including finance statistics, external sector data, and monetary statistics – all received ‘B’ grades with the IMF noting both strengths and weaknesses in each area.
Notably, this marks the second consecutive year India’s national accounts have received a ‘C’ grade, with the IMF observing that “data weaknesses have remained broadly unchanged” since last year’s assessment, though plans to upgrade statistics “are advancing.”
