India’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew 7.8% year-on-year in the third quarter of FY26 in real terms, while nominal GDP growth stood at 8.9%.
The data was released along with the Second Advance Estimates for FY 2025-26 and mark a major statistical shift, as the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation introduced a new series of GDP estimates with 2022-23 as the base year, replacing the earlier 2011-12 base.
For the full financial year FY26, real GDP is estimated to grow 7.6%, compared to 7.1% in FY25.
In value terms, real GDP is projected at Rs 322.58 lakh crore in FY26, up from Rs 299.89 lakh crore in FY25. Nominal GDP is estimated to grow 8.6% in FY26.
Real Gross Value Added, which reflects economic activity across sectors, is estimated to grow 7.7% in FY26 compared to 7.3% in FY25.
WHAT IS THE NEW GDP SERIES?
The new GDP series means that the base year used to measure economic growth has been shifted to 2022-23 from 2011-12.
The base year acts as a benchmark for calculating growth at constant prices. It is revised periodically to better capture structural changes in the economy and to improve the quality of estimates.
According to the release, the revision aims to capture structural changes, incorporate new data sources, improve estimation methodology and enhance coverage and accuracy.
WHAT HAS CHANGED?
One of the key changes is the wider use of new and more detailed data sources. These include Goods and Services Tax data, Public Finance Management System data and e-Vahan vehicle registration data. These sources provide more timely and granular information across sectors.
The methodology has also been revised. Double deflation has been introduced for manufacturing and agriculture, while single extrapolation is used for most other sectors. Earlier, single deflation was widely followed.
There is also greater reliance on annual surveys such as the Annual Survey of Unincorporated Sector Enterprises and the Periodic Labour Force Survey to better estimate the household and informal sectors.
In addition, the Supply Use Table framework has been integrated with national accounts to reduce discrepancies between production and expenditure estimates.
REVISED PAST ESTIMATES
The revision has resulted in updated growth figures for previous years under the new base. Real GDP growth stood at 7.2% in FY24 and 7.1% in FY25. Nominal GDP growth for FY25 was 9.7%.
Sector-wise, in FY25, the primary sector grew 4.9%, the secondary sector expanded 8.0%, and the services sector grew 7.9%.
A base year revision does not change the actual size of the economy in real terms. Instead, it updates the statistical framework to reflect the current structure of the economy. By using more recent data and improved methods, the government aims to present a more accurate picture of growth, sectoral performance, consumption and investment trends.
As per the advance release calendar, the provisional estimates for FY26 along with Q4 data will be released on May 29, 2026.
