The US and Iran are set to meet in Geneva on Thursday for the third round of nuclear talks this year, but the diplomatic atmosphere has shifted sharply following President Donald Trump’s combative State of the Union address.
In his speech on Tuesday night, Trump accused Tehran of restarting its nuclear programme, rebuilding missile capabilities and continuing destabilising activities across the Middle East – rhetoric that has raised the stakes ahead of the negotiations.
Track Live Updates on US Iran tensions here
A tougher public line from Washington
While talks were already underway, Trump’s address marked a clear escalation in tone. He claimed that despite last year’s US strikes that ‘obliterated’ Iran’s nuclear facilities, Tehran was attempting to rebuild.
“They’re starting it all over,” Trump said, reiterating that Iran “cannot have a nuclear weapon” and warning it would be a “very bad day” if a deal was not reached.
US secretary of state Marco Rubio reinforced that message on Wednesday, saying Iran was “always trying to rebuild elements” of its nuclear programme, even if it was not currently enriching uranium. He also flagged Tehran’s refusal to discuss its ballistic missile arsenal as a “big problem.”
Vice-president JD Vance said US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner would assess whether a viable agreement could be reached, but stressed that preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon remained the “ultimate objective.”
Military buildup casts shadow
The rhetoric comes alongside one of the largest US military deployments in the Middle East in recent years.
Satellite images analysed by The Associated Press appeared to show US Navy vessels from the Bahrain-based Fifth Fleet dispersed at sea, a move typically associated with force protection measures ahead of potential escalation.
Trump confirmed in his address that the US had previously struck Iranian nuclear facilities in an operation he described as decisive, but said dismantling any remaining capacity was back on the agenda if diplomacy failed.
Iran has warned that any attack would trigger retaliation against US bases in the region.
Iran pushes back
Tehran reacted angrily to Trump’s speech. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei dismissed the president’s allegations as “big lies,” accusing Washington of a disinformation campaign.
Foreign minister Abbas Araqchi arrived in Geneva on Wednesday and met Omani Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi, whose country is mediating the indirect talks.
Araqchi said Iran sought a “fair and swift” agreement and reiterated that Tehran would not relinquish its right to peaceful nuclear technology. According to Iranian media, he also raised the issue of lifting what Tehran calls “illegal and unilateral” US sanctions.
Iran has signalled it may offer fresh concessions in exchange for sanctions relief and recognition of its right to enrich uranium – a key sticking point for Washington, which views domestic enrichment as a potential pathway to nuclear weapons.
Broader fault lines: Missiles and sanctions
What appears to have changed most since Trump’s speech is not the formal negotiating framework, but the political pressure surrounding it.
The US is now publicly expanding the scope of concerns beyond enrichment levels to include Iran’s ballistic missile programme. Washington says Iran has the largest stockpile of ballistic missiles in the Middle East and is developing longer-range capabilities.
Tehran, however, has drawn a red line around discussing its missile programme in Geneva.
At the same time, divisions remain over the sequencing of sanctions relief. Iranian officials have indicated that deep economic strain and renewed domestic protests have increased pressure to secure a deal, but Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei faces internal constraints on appearing to concede too much.
Talks hang in the balance
The International Atomic Energy Agency, led by Rafael Grossi, is also expected to hold discussions in Geneva during the talks, though inspectors have not yet been allowed to verify the status of sites struck last year.
Analysts say Trump’s address has narrowed room for compromise by hardening public positions on both sides. While the president reiterated that diplomacy was his preference, his warnings of potential military action have intensified fears of a broader regional conflict.
For now, Thursday’s meeting is being framed by US officials as the “next opportunity to talk.” But after the State of the Union, the Geneva round carries greater urgency – and significantly higher stakes – than the two that came before it.
