Indian Exports to US Plummet 28.5% After Steep Tariff Hikes
India’s exports to the United States, its largest foreign market, plunged 28.5% between May and October 2025 following aggressive tariff increases, according to a new report from the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI).
Key Takeaways
- US tariffs on Indian goods escalated from 10% to 50% between April and August 2025
- Overall exports fell from $8.83 billion to $6.31 billion in five months
- Labour-intensive sectors suffered the steepest decline at 31.2%
- Smartphone exports, India’s largest product line to US, dropped 36%
Rapid Tariff Escalation
The decline followed a rapid escalation in US duties that began at 10% on April 2, rose to 25% on August 7, and reached 50% by late August. This made Indian goods among the most heavily taxed of any US trading partner. In comparison, China faced tariffs of about 30%, while Japan dealt with only 15%.
Tariff-Exempt Products Still Decline
Even tariff-exempt items such as smartphones, pharmaceuticals and petroleum products saw significant declines. These products accounted for 40.3% of October exports but still fell 25.8%, from $3.42 billion in May to $2.54 billion in October – a contraction of $881 million.
Labour-Intensive Sectors Hit Hardest
The steepest decline occurred in labour-intensive products where India alone faced 50% tariffs. These goods, which represented 52.1% of October exports, declined 31.2%, falling from $4.78 billion to $3.29 billion – nearly $1.5 billion erased in just five months.
GTRI Founder Ajay Srivastava highlighted the dramatic impact on smartphones, India’s single biggest product line to the US, which suffered a 36% decline, sliding from $2.29 billion in May to $1.50 billion in October – a loss of almost $790 million.
Monthly Export Trends
Monthly exports fell consistently from $2 billion in June to $1.52 billion in July, crashed to $964.8 million in August, eased further to $884.6 million in September, and finally recovered to $1.5 billion in October.
Other Major Export Categories
Pharmaceutical exports dipped marginally by 1.6%, from $745.6 million to $733.6 million. Petroleum product shipments declined 15.5%, falling from $291 million in May to $246 million in October.
Other labour-intensive sectors including gems and jewellery, textiles, garments, chemicals, and seafood all recorded declines in outbound shipments. Chemical exports tumbled 38%, declining from $537 million to $333 million.
