Iran’s ability to make more Shahed-136 weapons, rudimentary cruise missiles it has used to attack targets around the Persian Gulf, has been reduced by US and Israeli air strikes, but stockpiles remain and making more requires no complex components.
More than 2,100 Shaheds have been fired so far, according to Bloomberg estimates, damaging oil infrastructure, shutting airports and destroying valuable military hardware. While they are slow and easy to spot, their sheer volume has also eaten into supplies of expensive interceptor missiles.
The US and Israel have made hitting production facilities a priority. Iran has drones in storage, but its ability to produce more is limited — not necessarily by a lack of sites or materials, but because strikes have disrupted the organization and coordination needed for large-scale manufacturing, a senior European official said.
Still, the weapons are basically a fiberglass body with a motor, basic guidance, and explosives, meaning manufacturing can be done at a speedboat repair facility, for example, according to a person familiar with Iranian drone manufacturing.
“Since the Houthis have produced UAVs under bombardment, one would think the Iranians can — albeit not at the same rates since facilities have to be dispersed, and makeshift workshops used,” said Sid Kaushal, a senior research fellow at the UK-based Royal United Services Institute, referring to fighters in Yemen.
Another RUSI analyst, land warfare expert Bob Tallast, said that Iran had almost certainly anticipated being hit by high-intensity airstrikes, and has planned production facilities accordingly, such as by placing them underground. He added that as long as they could keep firing at least 20 Shaheds per attack, it would enable them to effectively strike targets.
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Israel, which has layers of air and missile defense systems knitted into its so-called Iron Dome, has been more effective at downing Shaheds and similar weapons using less-expensive systems than the US and its partners around the Gulf. The distance Shaheds need to travel to hit Israel also means they are often destroyed by defenses elsewhere along the way.
Tehran had an arsenal of as many as 2,500 ballistic missiles before the war and has so far fired about 700. Many of the missiles were destroyed on the ground, as were launchers, creating a bottleneck for their use.
Ballistic missiles are much more complex than Shaheds and require advanced manufacturing and materials, so their production rate is probably close to zero right now, the person said.
Launching a Shahed also requires much less infrastructure, with a launch rail on a vehicle the size of an SUV or pickup truck.
On Wednesday, the UK navy said three commercial ships had been struck in the Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf. It was unclear which weapon was used in the attack. Drones also smashed down near Dubai’s main airport, disrupting the already reduced flight schedule at the hub.
The strait has emerged as Iran’s biggest remaining weapon, with threats of sea mines and anti-ship missiles choking off access to a waterway that carries 20% of the world’s oil.
