In a speech on February 17, the Supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, stated, “An aircraft carrier is a dangerous machine, but even more dangerous than that is the weapon capable of sending it to the bottom of the sea.” His remarks were in response to reports of the US deploying the aircraft carriers USS Abraham Lincoln and USS Gerald R. Ford, along with their respective battle groups to within striking distance to Iran.
So what is the weapon, according to Khamenei, will Tehran use to send US aircraft carriers to the bottom of the sea? Unfortunately, the Ayatollah refrained from naming one singular weapons system, instead framing his message as a rhetorical one, designed to emphasise Iran’s claimed anti-ship capabilities, and its claimed ability to dominate the Strait of Hormuz with its area denial capabilities.
Nevertheless, we can still theorise what weapon Khamenei was talking about, based on the information available on various weapon systems used by Iran, from hypersonic missiles allegedly capable of reaching Mach 15, to cheaper, but still lethal subsonic anti-ship cruise missiles.
IRAN’S HYPERSONIC MISSILES
The most formidable weapon in Iran’s arsenal that can be utilised against a US Navy Carrier Battle Group is the Fattah class of hypersonic missiles.
Developed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the first of the Fattah class is the Fattah-1, that was unveiled in June 2023. According to a report by the press agency, Associated Press(AP), the Fattah-1 is a medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM) with a reported range of 1,400 km (870 miles) and speeds of Mach 13–15. It features a solid-fuel booster and a manoeuvrable re-entry vehicle (MaRV) with thrust vector controls designed to evade anti-missile defences in its terminal phase (the final phase of a missile’s flight before impacting its target).
Then there is also the Fattah-2, a newer iteration that was unveiled in November 2023, which analysts suggest may incorporate a hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV) design, departing from the original MaRV configuration. A hypersonic glide vehicle is an advanced manoeuvrable warhead that uses its aerodynamic construction to travel along an unpredictable flight trajectory, making it more difficult for missile defence systems to detect and destroy them.
It is currently not publicly known how many Fatah class hypersonic missiles Iran has. However, according to a report by The New York Times, several Fatah class missiles were used for the first time, alongside the 180 to 200 ballistic missiles that were launched by Iran targeting Israel on October 1, 2024, as part of Operation True Promise 2.
IRAN ANTI-SHIP CRUISE MISSILES
Although the Fatah class is the most formidable weapon Iran claims to possess, the backbone of their anti-ship and area denial arsenal consists of an estimated 1,000 to 1,200 Anti-Ship Cruise Missiles (ASCM) as reported by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).
According to a report from Iran Watch (a project of the Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control) titled, Iran’s Missile Milestones, this number includes a diverse variety of weapon systems derived from Chinese designs and indigenous developments. These form the core of Iran’s asymmetric naval denial strategy in the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, and beyond.
Some of the key types include:
- Noor – An Iranian derivative of the Chinese C-802 missile with an approximate range between 120 and 170 km.
- Qader(Ghader) – Essentially an upgrade to the Noor class, it can reach distances upto 200km and also features better guidance systems.
- Ghadir- Further upgrade of the Noor class, with a range of up to 300 km, features sea skimming capability to evade detection
- Nasr (Nasr-1 / Nasr-e Basir) – short-range missile system, based on the Chinese C-704/C-705 missile, with a reported range between 25 and 35 km.
- Ra’ad – Derived from the Chinese HY-2 Silkworm missile, with a reported range of up to 350 km.
- Abu Mahdi – Long-range cruise missile capable of hitting targets up to a distance of 1,000 km.
Many of these missiles were previously used by the Houthis in attempted strikes against both commercial vessels and US Navy warships with varying degrees of success.
Whether the Iranians can use their arsenal of hypersonic and anti-ship missiles to successfully sink, or at least heavily damage a US Navy aircraft carrier, is difficult to tell. Regardless of how effective Iran’s missile arsenal may be, or how many warheads they have, a US Navy Carrier Battle Group possesses formidable air and missile defence capabilities.
For instance, during the Red Sea Crisis, US warships deployed as part of Operation Prosperity Guardian were able to repel numerous drone and missile strikes launched by Houthi militants, while sustaining no damage or loss of life. In addition, Iran also has large numbers of submarine deployable mines and torpedoes, as well as unmanned aerial and marine vehicles it can use to mount strikes against US naval formations. But like the missiles, it is still debatable how effective they can actually be when sent against the most formidable Navy in the world.
