“Tempt fate and find out,” is the polite version of a colourful phrase now abbreviated to FAFO. That’s precisely the situation US President Donald Trump finds himself in right now, as the situation in the Middle East has deteriorated to one of the worst crises triggered by any US President. The situation in the Middle East also reminds one of the famous taco. Not the Mexican delicacy, but the acronym, Trump Always Chickens Out.
Taco and Trump have been linked not just because of his hostility towards the neighbouring Hispanic nation, but also because of a pattern investors noticed last spring — the president’s habit of walking back his most ridiculous policies’ blowback becomes too bad. Right now, the scenario in Iran and the Strait of Hormuz suggests the US is panicking, as Iran has shown no signs of backing down despite the odds against it.
Sea mines, ballistic missiles aimed at US allies in the region, and most importantly, global trade is being disrupted to such an extent that the US had to “allow” Russia, its archrival, to supply oil to India, China, Turkey, and many other nations. The same Russian oil which was fuelling the war in Ukraine, over which Trump went gaga with his tariffs, is now ruled illegal.
Many such contradictions mark the US’s military action in Iran.
“The US won the war on day one,” Trump announced soon after news broke of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s killing by Israeli-American strikes. But like America’s past disastrous expeditions abroad, the US forces overstaying in the Gulf region suggests the war is far from over.
Now Trump is asking other countries to join the conflict. Thankfully, sensibilities have prevailed from other nations. Australia and Japan have both said they have no plans to deploy their navies to the Strait of Hormuz.
For a war that the US supposedly won on February 28 itself, it appears that victory is still nowhere in sight.
TRUMP IS CALLING FOR ALLIES’S HELP
As the conflict enters its third week today, Trump has intensified calls for a multinational coalition to secure the Strait of Hormuz. The chokepoint is responsible for about 20% of the world’s oil and natural gas flows.
In posts on Truth Social and comments to reporters aboard Air Force One, Trump declared that “the Countries of the World that receive oil through the Hormuz Strait must take care of that passage, and we will help — A lot!” He added that the US would coordinate efforts, describing it as a “team effort” for harmony, security, and peace.
Trump demanded allies to send warships, but it appeared to have fallen on deaf ears, with Japan and Australia explicitly stating no plans to deploy naval vessels for escort missions in the Middle East, reported Reuters.
Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, a staunch Trump supporter, cited constitutional constraints, while Australia’s government confirmed it would not send ships even under pressure.
“We have not made any decisions whatsoever about dispatching escort ships. We are continuing to examine what Japan can do independently and what can be done within the legal framework,” Takaichi told Parliament.
Japan gets 95% of its oil from the Middle East.
Trump also warned Nato allies, saying a lack of assistance could mean a “very bad” future for the alliance, as he mentioned talks with “about seven” countries to police the strait, the BBC reported.
Trump also appealed to China, France, Japan, and South Korea.
IRAN HELL BENT ON AVENGING KHAMENEI’S DEATH
Iran, meanwhile, remains intent on avenging the attacks by Israel and the US. Not just sea mines, Iran is also getting support from the Houthis in Yemen who might pull the trigger in the strait, prompting insurers, brokers and shipping firms to pull back tankers and other vessels from transiting the Persian Gulf. The world is now feeling its impact in the form of rising oil prices and gas shortages.
Strategic expert Brahma Chellaney, said in a post on X, “There is no parallel in modern world history where the leader of a single country has so abruptly upended the international order — casting aside longstanding norms and core principles of international law, attacking the sovereignty of multiple states with military strikes, and wielding tariffs as a weapon against allies and adversaries alike.”
Now that the US and Israel’s war on Iran is faltering, there are no volunteers ready to sign up for this misadventure.
Lt Gen DP Pandey (Retd), also offered another perspective on X. The former army commander argued that a US withdrawal without a ceasefire could still count as success, but there is no clear win for any side.
However, the reality on the ground shows US attempts to clear the Strait of Hormuz have failed horribly. The US lit the fuse, but now wants the world to enter a raging inferno and douse the flames.
