Key Takeaways
- The New START treaty, the last major nuclear pact between the US and Russia, expires in February 2026.
- With talks stalled and verification suspended, the world faces its first period without nuclear arms control since 1972.
- Both superpowers are modernising their arsenals, and China’s rapid nuclear expansion adds a new layer of complexity.
The final brake on a global nuclear arms race is failing. The New START treaty, the last remaining nuclear arms control agreement between the United States and Russia, is set to expire in February 2026, with no replacement in sight. Experts warn the world is sliding towards a dangerous, unconstrained nuclear competition.
The Cornerstone Treaty and Its Collapse
Signed in 2010, New START has been a pillar of strategic stability. It capped deployed strategic nuclear warheads at 1,550 for each country and limited missiles and bombers. A key feature was its verification system, including on-site inspections, which has been largely suspended since 2020.
Negotiations for a follow-up treaty have been frozen for years. The war in Ukraine and the broader breakdown in US-Russia relations made diplomacy impossible. In 2023, Russia formally suspended its participation, and the US halted sharing critical data in response.
“We are now in a situation where there is no dialogue, no negotiations, and no framework for managing the world’s two largest nuclear arsenals,” a senior arms control official said anonymously. “The mechanisms for transparency and predictability are gone.”
A Return to an Uncontrolled Era
New START’s expiry would mark a grim milestone: the first time since 1972 that Washington and Moscow are not bound by any nuclear arms control treaty. This follows the collapse of the INF Treaty in 2019 and the US withdrawal from the ABM Treaty in 2002.
Analysts fear a return to an unchecked arms race. Both nations are aggressively modernising their nuclear triads. Russia is advancing systems like the Sarmat ICBM, while the US is replacing its Minuteman missiles, submarines, and bombers.
“Without a treaty, there is no ceiling. There is no obligation to provide data. There is no verification. It becomes a guessing game, and in a crisis, that is incredibly dangerous,” said Daryl Kimball of the Arms Control Association.
The China Factor and Fading Hope
The strategic landscape is further complicated by . While its arsenal is smaller, China’s rapid nuclear expansion has alarmed Western officials. Beijing has refused US calls to join arms control talks, citing its policy of “minimum deterrence.”
A sliver of hope remains for a last-minute diplomatic breakthrough before the 2026 deadline. However, with a US presidential election this year and deep hostility between the capitals, prospects are dim.
“The arms race isn’t coming; it’s already underway,” a European diplomat stated. “The question is whether we can reattach the brakes before we go over the cliff.”
