Up against multiparty alliances in Tamil Nadu, Vijay pits the 234 ‘Vijays’ template

For a state that has long been used to the marriage between Kollywood and politics, it is no surprise that April 23 will see a clash between two multistarrer political formations — the AIADMK + BJP-led National Democratic Alliance with close to 15 parties and the DMK + Congress-led Secular Progressive Alliance (SPA) with 23 parties. Up against them is actor-turned-politician Vijay’s solo hero party Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK). Another actor-turned-politician Seeman’s Naam Tamilar Katchi (NTK) too is in the fray.
The line-up is truly Rajinikanthesque. By taking on two established political Goliaths, Vijay would hope that the Tamil Nadu voter appreciates his ”singam single-la-dhaan varum” (the lion will always walk alone) narrative. In other words, his political avatar is an extension of his larger-than-life screen persona.
Truth be told, ‘Thalapathy’ (commander), as he is called, has dominated the discourse this election season, be it at the tea shop, on television debates, on social media and gatherings at weddings. With no previous electoral data to go by, Vijay is the X-factor no one quite knows how much of an impact he could possibly make and is like that mystery bowler no one quite knows how to play. His on-screen popularity, far more than any actor has commanded in recent times, has translated into an impressive opening at the political box office, as is obvious from the kind of frenzy witnessed before, during and after his public meetings. That explains why political parties have seriously discussed the possibility of tying up with him.
The Congress seriously flirted with the idea, but after its high command decided not to desert the DMK, reports of the NDA getting into overdrive emerged. Contact was reportedly established with the TVK top brass through members of the film industry known to both parties to see if a joint venture could be floated for the summer polls. It was claimed that Vijay was offered the post of deputy chief minister in a future NDA government. Leaks from a TVK meeting indicated that a majority of the district secretaries were in favour of going the NDA way as that would take care of the election expenditure. On the record, however, both TVK and AIADMK leaders have denied any exploration of a pre-poll alliance.
A fortnight before the process of filing of nominations begins, that is the dilemma Vijay faces. Chiranjeevi or Pawan Kalyan – which template should he adopt? The decision could well determine whether Vijay has a realistic chance to grab political power or he remains as yet another also-ran in the cesspool of Tamil Nadu politics.
What is certain is that if he nets about 15 to 20 percent of the vote share, it will not be enough to convert into a significant number of seats. Just like in 2009 in united Andhra Pradesh, where Chiranjeevi’s newly minted Praja Rajyam Party secured 16 percent votes to win 18 seats in the 294-member assembly. The megastar spent some time as just another MLA before merging his party with the Congress, got a Rajya Sabha seat as part of the arrangement and presided over the Union Tourism ministry before bidding goodbye to politics. If Vijay walks in Chiranjeevi’s footsteps, he runs the risk of meeting the same fate.
Pawan Kalyan is the other option. In 2019, Pawan’s Jana Sena went alone, secured 5.5 percent of the vote and won just one seat. Pawan himself lost both the assembly seats he contested. Five years later, the Jana Sena having realised its mistake, allied with the Telugu Desam and the BJP and won all the 21 assembly seats it contested. Pawan Kalyan is now the deputy chief minister of Andhra Pradesh.
But can Vijay afford to be on the BJP’s side? He had initially described the BJP as his ”ideological enemy” and the Centre-appointed Censor Board has for various reasons, not cleared his farewell movie ‘Jana Nayagan’. In the past, the BJP leaders had attacked him for his anti-GST dialogues in his 2017 movie ‘Mersal’ and highlighted his full name — Joseph Vijay — to underline his Christian credentials. Last month, Tamil Nadu BJP chief Nainar Nagendran made an uncharitable remark about Vijay and actress Trisha.
More importantly, sailing with the NDA will mean playing second fiddle to the AIADMK, contesting less than 50 seats and this will not be palatable to his supporters who want to see him as CM. On the other hand, going alone would mean he may only cut into the anti-incumbency vote, indirectly helping the ruling DMK.
Those within the TVK who favour going solo believe that Vijay is more NT Rama Rao than Chiranjeevi. In 1983, NTR’s Telugu Desam stormed into power in Andhra Pradesh, less than a year after it was formed. The reason was that people were fed up with the Congress hegemony and the control of the party from Delhi. NTR raised the slogan of Telugu atma gauravam (Telugu self-pride).
Similarly, Vijay’s entry after 60 years of Dravidian rule, hopes to tap into voters who feel a sense of fatigue with the Dravidian model of governance. His immense popularity among the youth and the woman voter — Tamil Nadu has 2.89 crore female voters and 2.77 crore male voters — cannot be underestimated or taken lightly.
However, the twin drawbacks the TVK faces are that its candidates will be largely unknown faces and the party’s booth management skills are untested. To counter this, Vijay has asked the voters to think that there are 234 ‘Vijays’ in the fray and vote for his party. May 4 will reveal if the voters repose their faith in Vijay and 233 Vijays.