Key Takeaways
- Global warming can still be reversed to below 1.5°C by 2100 with immediate, maximum climate action
- Renewables could supply two-thirds of global energy by 2050 under the ambitious scenario
- Fossil fuels would be phased out completely by the 2070s
- Temporary overshoot of 1.5°C is expected but reversible with rapid emissions cuts
The world can still return long-term global temperature rise to well below 1.5°C by 2100, but only if countries immediately pursue the “highest possible ambition” in climate action, according to a new Climate Analytics study.
Roadmap to Climate Recovery
The “Highest Possible Ambition” scenario shows global warming peaking around 1.7°C by 2040 before declining to approximately 1.2°C by century’s end. This requires transformative action including rapid electrification, renewable energy expansion, and complete fossil fuel phaseout.
Under this ambitious pathway:
- Global CO2 emissions reach net zero by 2045
- All greenhouse gases reach net zero by the 2060s
- Renewable electricity supplies nearly two-thirds of global energy demand by 2050
- Wind and solar meet over 90% of electricity needs
Fossil Fuel Phaseout Timeline
The analysis projects fossil fuel use peaking immediately and declining sharply:
- Coal effectively phased out by the 2040s
- Gas phased out by the 2050s
- Oil phased out by the 2060s
- Advanced economies achieve fossil-free energy by 2050
- Rest of the world follows by 2070
Additional Climate Measures
Methane emissions would fall 20% by 2030 and 30% by 2035 compared to 2020 levels, primarily through energy sector reductions. Carbon dioxide removal technologies would need to scale dramatically, capturing over 5 billion tonnes of CO2 annually by 2050.
Current Climate Reality
The Paris Agreement aims to limit warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, but temperatures have already reached 1.3°C and continue rising. 2024 was the hottest year on record and the first with global average temperature 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics, stated:
“Overshoot of 1.5 degrees Celsius is a woeful political failure and will bring increased damages and risk of tipping points that otherwise could have been avoided. But this roadmap shows it is still within our power to bring warming back well below 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2100.”
Neil Grant, Senior Expert and lead author, emphasized:
“The last five years have cost us precious time in the critical decade of climate action. However, they have also seen a revolution in renewables and batteries… The window to minimise overshoot is still open, but narrowing fast.”
The analysis warns that temporary overshoot of 1.5°C, expected to last about four decades, will significantly impact vulnerable countries, ecosystems, and global inequality. However, swift emissions cuts combined with renewable energy advancements could reverse this trend before century’s end.
