India’s stock market surged for a second consecutive session today, joining a broader Asian relief rally as signs of a Iran war ceasefire sent crude oil prices tumbling below the $100-per-barrel.
The 30-share S&P BSE Sensex climbed as much as 1,161 points, or 1.57%, to 75,230.06 in morning trade, while the wider NSE Nifty 50 rose 1.6% to cross the 23,200 mark. The rally was broad-based, with 15 of the 16 major sectoral indices logging gains. Small-cap and mid-cap stocks outperformed the benchmarks, rising 2.7% and 2.2%, respectively.
The primary catalyst for the risk-on sentiment was a reported shift in US foreign policy. On Tuesday, President Donald Trump indicated that progress is being made toward a negotiated settlement in the Middle East. Reports suggest the US has presented Tehran with a 15-point plan aimed at a month-long ceasefire, providing a much-needed reprieve for global energy markets.
Brent crude, the international benchmark, slumped 4.4% to trade near $99.89 per barrel. For India, which imports more than 80% of its oil requirements, the retreat in energy prices acts as a massive tailwind for corporate margins and fiscal stability.
“Hope is returning to the market with indications of de-escalation in the conflict. Remarks from Trump and from the Iranian regime indicate that the conflict might end soon,” V.K. Vijayakumar, chief investment strategist at Geojit Investments, said in an email. “These positive geopolitical developments have reflected in sharp decline in Brent crude to around $98.”
Despite the optimism, some analysts urged caution. While Tehran has indicated that “non-hostile ships” can transit the critical Strait of Hormuz, Iranian officials have officially denied that direct talks are currently underway.
FII vs DII
The recovery comes against a backdrop of historic selling by foreign investors. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have offloaded approximately $11.37 billion in Indian stocks so far in March—the highest monthly divestment on record. On Tuesday alone, exchange data showed FIIs pulled out a net ₹8,009 crore.
Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs), however, are picking up the slack. They bought ₹5,867 crore worth of shares yesterday.
“The ‘dollar buying syndrome’ remains a factor,” Anil Kumar Bhansali, head of treasury at Finrex Treasury Advisors, told PTI. “Foreign fund outflows amid the West Asia crisis continue to weigh on the rupee, which slipped 18 paise to 93.94 against the dollar today.”
Stocks in Focus Today
HDFC Bank: Shares rose 2.1%, extending a recent winning streak, after India’s largest private lender appointed external law firms to dig into the minutes of board meetings to decode what led to the resignation of part-time chairman Atanu Chakraborty.
IPL Franchise Owners (Sun TV & RPSG Ventures): Sport-linked stocks saw a massive re-rating after a consortium—including Blackstone and the Aditya Birla Group—agreed to buy the Royal Challengers Bengaluru (RCB) franchise from United Spirits for a staggering $1.78 billion. RPSG Ventures (Lucknow Super Giants) skyrocketed 15.6%. Sun TV (Sunrisers Hyderabad) climbed 2.5%.
Heavyweights: Mahindra & Mahindra, UltraTech Cement, and Adani Ports led the Sensex gainers’ list as investors rotated back into cyclicals and infrastructure.
Laggards: The IT sector remained under pressure, with Tech Mahindra and Infosys bucking the positive trend as concerns over discretionary spending persist.
Market Outlook
Market participants are now looking toward the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) as the financial year-end approaches. Traders expect the central bank may intervene in the currency markets to stabilise the rupee, with some forecasting a move back toward the 92.80 level if geopolitical tensions continue to thaw.
For now, the trajectory of the Nifty 50 depends heavily on whether the $100-per-barrel ceiling on oil holds. If the 15-point ceasefire plan gains traction, analysts believe India’s stock market could recover a significant portion of its 7.6% monthly loss.
