Fed chair Jerome Powell says US can look past oil shock; flags risk if inflation expectations shift

US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Monday said the central bank can look through the energy price shock triggered by the Middle East conflict, but warned it may need to act if rising costs begin to alter inflation expectations, AFP reported.

“The tendency is to look through any kind of a supply shock,” Powell said at an event at Harvard University, noting that energy shocks have historically been short-lived.

This is because “energy shocks have tended to come and go pretty quickly” while changes in monetary policy take longer to transmit through the economy, he said.

The remarks come amid escalating tensions following US-Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28, which led to retaliation from Tehran and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz — a key route for global energy supplies.

With nearly one-fifth of global crude oil and liquefied natural gas passing through the strait in normal conditions, the conflict has pushed up global oil prices and driven a surge in US gasoline costs, raising concerns over inflation.

For now, Powell said, “we feel like our policy is in a good place for us to wait and see how that turns out.”

He added that “inflation expectations do appear to be well-anchored beyond the short term,” but acknowledged that supply shocks could risk shifting expectations if price pressures persist.

The Fed is currently navigating what Powell described as a “tension” between its dual mandate of maintaining price stability and supporting employment, with risks of both higher inflation and a weakening labour market.

On financial stability, Powell said the US system has “significantly hardened” since the 2008 global financial crisis, though regulators must continue to ensure resilience without attempting to “regulate risk out of existence.”

He added that policymakers are closely watching emerging areas such as private credit.

With his term set to expire in May, Powell also underscored the importance of the Fed’s independence, saying the central bank “needs to be fully politically independent” and that its chair should be “a person who can be reappointed by either side.”