Breast cancer, now India’s most common cancer, has more than doubled over the past three decades, underscoring a deepening public health crisis.
A new analysis published in The Lancet Oncology shows that incidence rates in India climbed from 13 per 100,000 women in 1990 to 29.4 per 100,000 in 2023 — a staggering 127 percent jump.
Deaths have risen sharply too.
The age-standardised mortality rate increased from 8.9 per 100,000 women in 1990 to 15.5 in 2023, marking a 74 percent rise. The findings are part of the Global Burden of Disease Study Breast Cancer Collaborators’ report, which tracks long-term cancer trends worldwide.
Globally, new breast cancer cases are projected to rise from 2.3 million in 2023 to more than 3.5 million by 2050 — a one-third increase — despite advances in screening and treatment.
Data from World Health Organization’s Globocan 2022 estimates show that India recorded 1.92 lakh new breast cancer cases in 2022, the highest among all cancers in the country, ahead of lip and oral cavity and cervical and lung cancers.
A key challenge related to breast cancer in India is its late diagnosis, with over 60 percent of cases identified in only the third or fourth stage when the condition is advanced – leading to poor survival rates and high cost of treatment.
PRE-MENOPAUSAL WOMEN INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE
While breast cancer remains more common in women over 55, the rise among younger women is striking. Since 1990, incidence in women aged 20 to 54 has climbed 29 percent globally, even as rates among older women have remained relatively stable.
The trend signals shifting risk patterns and changing lifestyles, particularly in low- and middle-income countries like India.
Oncologists specialising in breast cancer back home, too, agree that the most crucial shift in breast cancer in India is not just its rise, but its early onset —as there are more young women affected than ever before.
“The reasons remain largely unknown. It may be linked to generational changes, environmental exposures, or lifestyle factors such as obesity, yet not all young patients fit these patterns. In many ways, it remains a troubling mystery,” Kerala-based oncologist Dr Aju Mathew told India Today.
But as per the report, nearly 28 percent of the global breast cancer burden in 2023 — equivalent to 6.8 million years of healthy life lost — was linked to six modifiable risk factors. High red meat consumption accounted for the largest share, followed by tobacco use, high blood sugar, high body mass index, alcohol use, and low physical activity.
There has been progress in reducing breast cancer burden linked to alcohol and tobacco since 1990. But gains have stalled for other risk factors, especially obesity and metabolic disorders, which continue to climb.
Experts warn that many low- and middle-income nations are ill-equipped to handle the growing caseload. Shortages of radiotherapy machines, chemotherapy drugs and diagnostic facilities, coupled with high treatment costs, compound the challenge.
Even in high-income countries, survival often depends on where a woman lives and how early the disease is detected.
“With more than a quarter of the global breast cancer burden linked to six modifiable lifestyle changes, there are tremendous opportunities to alter the trajectory of breast cancer risk for the next generation,” said co-senior author Dr Marie Ng, affiliate associate professor at IHME, Washington University and associate professor at National University of Singapore.
Targeting known risk factors through public health policies and making healthier choices more accessible, while working with individuals to take action to reduce obesity and high blood sugar, is crucial to halting the rise in breast cancers worldwide, she insisted.
