Of the 85 Muslim-dominated seats, the TMC won 75 in 2021
Which party enters the fray from a position of strength in Muslim-dominated seats? The Trinamool Congress (TMC) swept these areas in 2021. But they have not always been a TMC fortress.
We are referring to 85 Assembly seats spread across five districts—Murshidabad, Malda, Uttar Dinajpur, Birbhum, and South 24 Parganas—where the Muslim population ranges from 35 per cent to 66 per cent, significantly higher than the state average. Of these, Murshidabad (66.3 per cent) and Malda (51.3 per cent) are Muslim-majority districts. They are followed by Uttar Dinajpur (49.9 per cent), Birbhum (37.1 per cent), and South 24 Parganas (35.6 per cent).
Over a decade, these districts shifted from being Congress-Left strongholds to TMC-dominated regions. The BJP emerged as the principal challenger in 2021.
In the 2011 Assembly elections, the Congress and the Left Front won a majority of these 85 seats. The TMC secured 36, largely due to its strong performance in South 24 Parganas.
In Murshidabad, the Congress won 14 seats and the Left secured six, while the TMC managed just one that year. A similar pattern was visible in Malda, where Congress won eight seats, the Left six, and the TMC only one. In Uttar Dinajpur’s nine seats, Congress won three, the Left three, and the TMC two.
The BJP drew a blank across these 85 seats.
TMC EXPANDS FOOTPRINT IN 2016
The situation changed somewhat in the 2016 elections. In Murshidabad, the TMC increased its tally to four seats, a gain of three. Congress again won 14 seats, while the Left lost two.
In 2016, the BJP opened its account with one seat, marking its first breakthrough in these Muslim-dominated districts. TMC’s tally jumped to 46 and the Congress-Left combine managed 38.
TMC CONSOLIDATION, CONGRESS-LEFT COLLAPSE IN 2021
The 2021 election marked a decisive shift. Of the 85 Muslim-dominated seats, the TMC won 75 seats which signalled a consolidation of Muslim votes in its favour.
In Murshidabad, the TMC captured 20 of 22 seats, leaving two for the BJP. Congress and the Left were wiped out.
In Malda’s 12 seats, the TMC won eight, while the BJP increased its tally to four. Congress and the Left failed to win a single seat.
In Uttar Dinajpur, the TMC secured seven of nine seats, with the BJP winning two. In Birbhum, the TMC won 10 out of 11 seats, with the BJP securing one. In South 24 Parganas, the TMC won 30 of 31 seats in the region it has dominated since 2011.
Data from the past three elections point to a decisive political shift in the Muslim-dominated districts of West Bengal. Will that trend hold again this time, despite 15 years of incumbency for the All India Trinamool Congress (TMC)? In any case, the outcome in these 85 seats will be closely watched to gauge which way Muslim votes are heading.
